MLB Home Run Derby Best Bets, Predictions, and Props for 2025

As a life-long Minnesota Twins fan, I have spent the past decade-plus of my life salivating over Byron Buxton.
He had immense hype as a prospect coming up, showed flashes between injuries early on, and is now someone who can produce like a superstar.
As such, I'd love to bet on my beautiful darling boy as he competes in the 2025 Home Run Derby in his home state of Georgia.
I just can't do it, for one very specific reason.
My guy ain't thick enough.
Why does that matter? Which other factors should we consider when trying to pick a derby winner? And which batters are actually worth a bet for this year's contest?
We're going to run through all of that today in hopes we can nail the winner for a second straight year.
Home Run Derby Format for 2025
I thought the changes made to the derby prior to last year's event were great ones, so I'm pumped they're running it back for 2025.
The key difference is that hitters now have three minutes or 40 pitches -- whichever comes first -- to hit as many home runs as possible. Previously, you could spray pitches as fast as possible, and it made things more timing-based than it was a display of sheer power.
The three minutes or 40 pitches format is in place again this year. Players also have a bonus period where they receive three outs (swings that don't result in homers), and they can gain a fourth out by hitting a homer of 425-plus feet.
The other similarity is that we no longer have first-round matchups. Instead, all eight batters will take their hacks, and the top four scores will advance to the semifinals. At that point, it switches to a head-to-head competition. The batter who hit the most home runs in the first round will face the batter with the fourth most and so on.
The format for the semifinals and finals is two minutes or 27 pitches.
Truist Park Factor by Handedness
Overall, Atlanta's Truist Park is about neutral for home runs, sitting 15th in Baseball Savant's home run park factor across a three-year rolling average.
The key for us, though, is whether it favors righties or lefties, especially with there being a good mix in this year's field.
We can give a slight bump to lefties. The home run park factor for them is 105 (with 100 being neutral) while it's 99 for righties. We don't need to cross off righties, but they do get a slight downgrade.
Past Home Run Derby Winners
This is where you find out why we're down with the thickness.
We have Statcast data dating back to 2015. This means we can look at past Derby winners and see what trends emerge. Is a particular skill -- or bodily trait -- more conducive to success in this contest?
The table below lists out the winners from 2015 on (there was no Home Run Derby in 2020) and some key numbers. The stats listed are their full-season numbers rather than where they were at entering the All-Star break.
The bottom of the table also shows league-wide average for each mark from 2015 to 2024 so that we can see in which categories our winners stood out from the rest of the league.
Give me the beef, baby.
The lightest Home Run Derby winner in this span was Bryce Harper at 210 pounds. Only two players in this year's field fall short of that threshold: Jazz Chisholm and -- sigh -- Buxton.
While we don't need to cross those players off, it's fair to be skeptical of their stamina for the final. This is a superbly taxing event, and at least in past years, it has been the bigger bodies that have been able to hold up across three rounds.
The other data point that pops is barrel rate. The average for the winners is double the league-wide mark, and only Todd Frazier was in the single digits a decade ago.
Last year's final was between Teoscar Hernandez and Bobby Witt Jr., who were both top three in the field in barrel rate entering the derby. Marcell Ozuna led the field in that stat and didn't make it out of the first round, so we can't just sort by barrel rate and log out, but it is the best individual piece of data, based on history.
2025 Home Run Derby Participants
Now, let's dig into this year's field and see how they measure up in the categories we care about.
Below are each batter's numbers entering the All-Star break. As you can see, a lot of guys do hit the key thresholds laid out earlier on.
We've got three guys in the field who check in at 230-plus pounds: Cal Raleigh, James Wood, and Oneil Cruz. All three also have superb barrel rates, and they can swing left-handed (Raleigh has said he may bat righty, as well).
The only problem? They're the runaway three favorites to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB Home Run Derby betting odds.
'Twould seem others are onto the "bet on the big boys with big bats" approach. Alas.
That doesn't mean we can't bet those guys. Value is value, even if it comes at short odds.
I do think, though, we'll want to dig a bit deeper in a volatile event, and we may even want to fade some of those top guys.
That's actually where I'll start as we finally dig into which bets I like for tonight.
2025 Home Run Derby Betting Picks
James Wood to Not Make the Semifinal Round (+136)
I wouldn't be shocked if Wood were to win this event, given his weight and barrel rate.
He's just not a guy whose stroke is super conducive to this type of event.
Wood enters the break with a launch angle of 6.1 degrees. That's not only the lowest in the field, but it's also three degrees lower than any of our recent winners. His fly-ball rate is six percentage points below the league average and almost five below that of any previous winners.
We've seen the launch angle of winners dip in recent years, so batters who feast on line drives rather than fly balls can do well. But we're getting +136 on Wood simply to not be in the top four after the first round. Given this one key flaw in his profile, it's a bet I'm willing to make.
Jazz Chisholm to Make the Semifinal (+172)
Yes, Chisholm violates our cardinal rule of betting on beef. But that revolves more around stamina across three rounds. He has the profile to wow early, though.
Chisholm enters tied for third in the field in barrel rate, trailing just Cruz and Raleigh. He also is second in fly-ball rate behind just Raleigh, and his launch angle is third.
With his home games at Yankee Stadium, Chisholm is used to gunning for a short porch in right. I think he can take advantage of that here, too.
I don't want to back Chisholm to win, even at +1400, due to concerns about his stamina. But at +172 just to advance to the semifinals, those concerns are fully accounted for.
Matt Olson to Win the Home Run Derby (+1000)
Matt Olson was a late add to the Derby field, replacing teammate Ronald Acuna Jr.. That means he has had less heads up than the others.
He checks a lot of key boxes at such a long price, though.
Olson is big, strong, left-handed, and gets a lot of barrels. Although his barrel rate is lower than that of Cruz and others, it would still rank second among Derby winners since 2015. It's more than high enough for us to trust him.
He also has a lofty hard-hit rate at 54.4%, only a couple percentage points off tops in the field. The winners' hard-hit rates have been 10 percentage points above league average, and Olson is a standout here.
He also has narrative street in his corner as an Atlanta native playing in his home park.
Olson has Derby experience, belting 23 homers in the first round at Coors Field in 2021. That number wasn't enough to advance as Trey Mancini topped him, but having that knowledge under his belt does give him a leg up on others in this field.
I think Raleigh deserves to be the favorite here, given his combo of girth and elite batted-ball data. Thus, I don't hate an exacta of Raleigh to defeat Olson at +2500. But if you give me just one win bet for the event, Olson is my favorite value.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.