The Duel

USA Odds to Qualify for 2022 World Cup Paint Optimistic Picture for USMNT in Qatar

By David Hayes
Christian Pulisic is widely regarded as the top talent on the upcoming USMNT roster ahead of the 2022 World Cup.
Christian Pulisic is widely regarded as the top talent on the upcoming USMNT roster ahead of the 2022 World Cup. / Matthew Stockman/Getty Images
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Qualifying for the 2018 World Cup in Russia certainly didn't go as planned for the U.S. Men's National Team. As many painfully remember, in fact, USA didn't qualify for the World Cup that year at all after being stunned, 2-1, by Trinidad & Tobago in the fifth and final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying back on Oct. 10, 2017.

It's hard to believe it's nearly been a full 2.5 years since that demoralizing misstep that lead to the USMNT being left out of the World Cup for the first time since 1986. However, we're almost closer to the start of the 2022 World Cup than we are to that 2017 loss, and the USMNT's future is looking very bright ahead of Qatar, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

USA Odds to Qualify for World Cup 2022

And when I say the USMNT's qualifying odds are bright, I mean it. USA currently has -260 odds of qualifying for the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. For some added perspective, those -260 odds reflect an implied probability of a whopping 72.2 percent chance that the USMNT qualifies for the World Cup.

As for the other side of this optimism, there is always a reality, and the reality here is that the USMNT is also facing +180 odds of failing to qualify for the 2022 World Cup. Those +180 odds reflect an implied probability of just a 35.7 percent chance, though.

USA Odds to Win World Cup 2022

While USA is a long way from the "favorites" conversation, the USNMT's odds of winning it all in Qatar may still surprise you. USA currently has +9900 odds of winning the 2022 World Cup, and before you jump to any conclusions about the longer nature of those odds on their face, allow for some additional perspective.

USA's +9900 odds are actually the 16th-best among the 101 nations with available futures odds to win the World Cup on FanDuel Sportsbook. Once again, there's plenty of distance between 16th and standing atop the podium, but considering the 2018 USMNT didn't even make the 32-team cut for the last World Cup, carrying the 16th-best odds of winning the next one – that USA still hasn't qualified for – feels nothing short of inspiring.

For the time being, USA sits sandwiched in between Mexico (+8000) and Switzerland (+10000) in the odds to win the 2022 World Cup, who certainly aren't bad company to keep in a measure like this one.

To better explain what these odds mean for the USMNT, let's package them into a more classic American example, say college football. Looking ahead to next season, any team with +9900 odds of winning the 2021 College Football Playoff (CFP) National Championship would be sitting right behind teams like Minnesota (+8000) and Nebraska (+8000) and sitting just ahead of teams like Florida State (+10000), Washington (+10000) and Utah (+10000).

So, are the USMNT's odds of winning the 2022 World Cup improbable? Of course, but far from impossible. Just remember, LSU's Joe Burrow opened last season staring at +6000 odds of winning the 2019 Heisman Trophy, and we all know how that story ended.


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David Hayes is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David Hayes also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username DavidWHayes. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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