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The Duel

History Points to Rough Game for Tua Tagovailoa Against Patriots

By David Kaestle

Tua Tagovailoa throws pass against Kansas City Chiefs.
Tua Tagovailoa throws pass against Kansas City Chiefs. / Mark Brown/Getty Images
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Week 15 brings us yet another matchup between Bill Belichick and one of his former coaches in Brian Flores. Additionally, it is another matchup that has a rookie quarterback going up against Bill Belichick. And if the historic numbers are any indication, Miami Dolphins rookie signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa will struggle in the Dolphins' Week 15 game against the division rival New England Patriots.

Over the past eight seasons, no rookie quarterback has ever been able to get a win against Belichick and the Patriots in 11 previous attempts. And the statistics of those quarterbacks in those games are just as ugly.

Tua has had a rookie year that many could have predicted. While at times he has gone through some real struggles, he has also shown signs of potential future stardom. Tua on the year is only averaging 173.4 passing yards per game, so he's barely outperforming that average number against the Patriots to begin with. However, he does have a 62 percent completion percentage.

While this Patriots team is far worse than any of the versions from the last eight seasons, it is still coached by Bill Belichick, and Tagovailoa is still a rookie quarterback. It will be interesting to see if Tua can buck the trend, but history says it's not happening.

Despite this trend, Tua and the Dolphins are 1.5-point favorites over the Patriots in Week 15 according to NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.