5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 7/13/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

Over 8.5 Runs (-115)

Having successfully cashed the first-five-inning under here yesterday, it was still on fully display how quickly these bullpens can turn an under into an over.

The Cleveland Guardians (4.21) and Chicago White Sox (4.12) both rank in the bottom three of reliever skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) over the past 30 days, and today's starters don't scream shutout.

Cleveland's Joey Cantillo has a solid 3.26 SIERA in three games as a starter, but he's also topped out at 85 pitches as he stretches out. The Pale Hose, oddly enough, have shown a pulse against southpaws in the past month, per a .688 team OPS (20th in MLB).

The real star of this total should be Aaron Civale. "Mr. Trade Request" hasn't fared much better with a 5.91 SIERA in Chitown, and he's coughed up 1.44 HR/9 in the sample.

These offenses aren't stellar, but this is a low bar to clear with bad pitching throughout the tilt.

Kyle Manzardo to Record 2+ Total Bases (+115)

One of the few bats I can count on is Kyle Manzardo as he faces the embattled Civale.

Manzardo and Jose Ramirez are the true power threats in the Guards' order against righties. The first baseman has posted a .796 OPS, .211 ISO, and 40.0% hard-hit rate over the past 30 days against righties, which comprises 62 plate appearances (PAs).

You can pick your favorite "Civale isn't great" stats, but issues with flyballs (46.7% rate) and hard-hit ones (44.6%) have actually been worse since he shifted cities.

Civale's dinger problems have Manzardo a bit too short in the home run market (+350), but plus money on a bases prop is a nice consolation. FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 2.03 median total bases from him on Sunday.

Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics

Athletics Moneyline (+108)

The Athletics have a great shot to go into the All-Star break with momentum here.

Their Triple-A home venue might be just what the doctor ordered to induce one of these patented Jose Berrios blowup games. Berrios has been chased with four-plus earned runs in 5 of 19 starts while remaining pretty spotless in the exceptions, per a pedestrian 4.29 SIERA.

Sacramento's own have a .723 team OPS against righties in the past month, too. That's a strong mark relative to the Toronto Blue Jays' .669 mark against southpaws like Jeffrey Springs in this period.

Springs' 4.73 SIERA isn't a fan of his low strikeout rate (18.6%), but he does a good job limiting hard contact (36.8% rate). That's led to a manageable home ERA of 4.30 compared to the rest of the staff.

Over the past month, the Athletics' bullpen (3.50 SIERA) has also outperformed the Jays' (3.93 SIERA). I think this one tilts toward the home side.

Brent Rooker to Hit a Home Run (+350)

It's always a good day if we're showing value on a Brent Rooker bomb.

The righty has heated up with the weather, posting a .924 OPS, .247 ISO, 35.6% flyball rate, and 45.8% hard-hit rate over his last 93 PAs. Those are checks in all of our major categories for a bomb at MLB's eighth-best venue for homers this season.

Berrios' contact issues are what has his SIERA inched north of four. He's allowed an elevated rate of flyballs (40.3%) and hard-hit balls (40.9%), and Berrios has been fortunate to only allow 1.04 HR/9 as his homer-to-flyball ratio (10.2%) sits well below the league average (11.9%).

Our projections expect 0.28 median home runs for Rooker on Sunday, implying closer to +309 odds for one if correct.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

Under 7.5 Runs (-120)

The league office should take notice of these two starters on Sunday as obvious snubs for the NL All-Star squad. Consider me old-fashioned for preferring these samples over Jacob Misiorowski's five strikeout-heavy appearances.

Cristopher Sanchez of the Philadelphia Phillies has dazzled with a 3.04 SIERA and 26.3% K rate in 107.2 innings. Today, he'll have the benefit of a San Diego Padres club with a below-average .706 team OPS in the last 30 days against southpaws.

Not to be outdone, Nick Pivetta has been a gem of an acquisition with a 3.37 SIERA and 28.0% K rate in his 102.2 innings. Philly is just above the league average in the past 30 days against righties (.752 OPS), but they're nothing he can't handle.

With motivation to prove some doubters wrong, I'll back a pitching duel in MLB's ninth-best park for hurlers this season.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.