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Tom Brady Super Bowl History Points to Betting First-Quarter Under

Max Staley
Tom Brady's Super Bowl history suggests a low-scoring first quarter.
Tom Brady's Super Bowl history suggests a low-scoring first quarter. / Dylan Buell/Getty Images
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Tom Brady's appearance in Super Bowl LV will mark his 10th appearance in this game, and he's going for his seventh ring. He's pretty much unquestionably the most accomplished quarterback in the history of the sport. But oddly enough, he does have one rather glaring hole in his Super Bowl resume.

The GOAT has never led a touchdown drive in the first quarter of any of his Super Bowl appearances. Taking a look at the props available on FanDuel Sportsbook, there are plenty of ways to profit off of this trend if you believe Brady will make it 10-for-10 on Sunday.

In fact, Brady has never led at the end of the first quarter in the Super Bowl, though he's been tied at the end of the first five times. The New England Patriots also never scored more than 3 first-quarter points in their nine Brady-led Super Bowl appearances, getting shutout in the first a whopping eight times.

These trends make it hard not to like the Kansas City Chiefs to win the first quarter at -148. Similarly, taking under 10.5 total first-quarter points (-136) could be tough to pass up. Not only does Brady tend to struggle in the first, but the Chiefs' offense has made a habit of starting slow recently.

The biggest potential payout could come from betting neither team will score a first-quarter touchdown, which is available at +400.

Of course, all of these Brady trends are from his time in New England. Rarely has he been surrounded by this much firepower on offense. And the Chiefs' offense might be the most explosive opponent he's ever faced in the Super Bowl, so fading both of these units is a risky proposition, to say the least.

Still, it's hard to ignore Brady's extensive history in this game.


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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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