Stefon Diggs Fantasy Outlook Includes Boom-or-Bust Upside With the Buffalo Bills in 2020

Jason Schandl
Stefon Diggs' fantasy football value may get a boost with the Bills in 2020, but that doesn't come without some risk.
Stefon Diggs' fantasy football value may get a boost with the Bills in 2020, but that doesn't come without some risk. / Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

Stefon Diggs has been a top fantasy football producer over the last few seasons. He finished 24th among all wide receivers in point-per-reception (PPR) fantasy production in 2019 and 10th in 2018.

Playing with a new team for the first time since being drafted by the Minnesota Vikings in 2015, Diggs' fantasy football outlook changes significantly heading into the 2020 season. That's not necessarily a bad thing, though.

Diggs thrives as a deep threat. His 15.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) in 2019 nearly doubled his 2018 mark of 8.6 yards. This not only lead to (of course) a huge increase in yards per reception (10.0 to 17.9), but also a massive jump in yards per target (6.9 to 12.0). We see a similar trend looking back to 2017 as well. His aDOT was between those two marks (11.5 yards), and so were his yards per target (8.9).

Even with Diggs at his disposal, however, Kirk Cousins has never really been one to push the ball downfield. In 2019, his 7.6-yard aDOT ranked just 29th among the 42 players with at least 100 attempts. In 2018, his 7.2-yard mark ranked 32nd out of 41.

Josh Allen, however, loves airing the ball out. As a rookie in 2018 he led the NFL with a 10.9-yard aDOT, and then in 2019 he ranked fifth with a 9.2-yard mark.

While Allen has Cousins beat in how often he goes deep, Cousins has an edge in efficiency on such throws. Cousins has completed 42.8 percent of his deep passes over the last two years, per Pro-Football-Reference. Allen has only completed 32.8 percent.

So Diggs could be in for a huge number of opportunities to work downfield on deep passes. That gives him a huge range of outcomes for the season, however, given Allen's inconsistency. If the two can establish some chemistry, the sky will be the limit. If they don't, we could see Diggs' catch rate plummet, with his fantasy football value following suit.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.