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Pittsburgh Penguins vs. New York Islanders: Will There Be A Goaltenders Duel in Game 5?

Elisha Twerski
Pittsburgh Penguins v New York Islanders - Game Four
Pittsburgh Penguins v New York Islanders - Game Four / Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Penguins vs. Islanders, Moneyline, Total, and Odds

Odds courtesy of Fanduel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Penguins -144 | Islanders +122
Spread: Penguins -1.5 (+195) | Islanders +1.5 (-240)
Total: 5.5 – Over: (+114) | Under: (-140)
Odds to Win Series: Penguins -122 | Islanders +100
Odds to win Stanley Cup: Penguins+1300 | Islanders +1600

Penguins vs. Islanders News, Analysis, and Picks

Game 5 between the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders goes down tonight in Pittsburgh. These teams have split the first four games, and we're expecting things to tighten up defensively as this series is down to a best of three.

Tristan Jarry has been a different goaltender at home this year and has some pretty pronounced splits. On the road, Jarry is stopping 88.5% of shots with a posted goals-against average of 3.25. He's substantially better at home with a save percentage of 92.6% while allowing an average of 2.35 goals per game. That's been evident in this series as well, as Jarry is stopping 93.7% of shots at home compared to 86.0% on Long Island.

As is normally the case, the Pens have been more effective at limiting opponents at home than on the road. Pittsburgh has limited the Islanders to 19.8 scoring chances and 9.7 high-danger opportunities per 60-minutes across all strengths. The Islanders have also been one of the least offensive teams on the road this season. The Isles scored the second-fewest goals as the visitors this season, putting up 56 in 28 games throughout the regular season. Their expected goals for was only marginally better, with an expected value of 63.8, which was seventh from the bottom.

Barry Trotz normally puts up an iron-clad defensive curtain, which is amplified during the playoffs. Dating back to last season, the Islanders limited their opponents to nine of fewer high-danger chances and 26 or fewer scoring chances at five-on-five in 17 of their 26 games. If we remove their series against the offensively gifted and eventual Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning, the Islanders had optimal defensive ratings in 15 of 20 games.

New York has alternated goalies so far this series, giving Semyon Varlamov the start in Games 2 and 3 and Ilya Sorokin starting Games 1 and 4. Sorokin is 2-0-0 in his starts with a 94.4% save percentage and 1.76 goals-against average. Varlamov is 0-2-0 while stopping 90.3% of shots and giving up 3.61 goals per 60 minutes. Starting Varlamov over Sorokin tonight would be a disservice to the Islanders.

We're riding the goaltending and defensive metrics and taking the under in Pittsburgh tonight in a tightly contested game that takes longer than 60 minutes to sort out.

The Bets: Under 5.5 -140, 60-minute tie +300

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