Fantasy football draft season is heating up and there are lots of strategies that can seemingly lead to a title. One of the most long-lasting draft strategies in one QB leagues has been waiting until the later rounds to draft a quarterback. And that even extends to the consensus top-ranked quarterback Patrick Mahomes, especially at his current average draft position (ADP), according to fantasy expert JJ Zachariason.
It's not Mahomes that Zachariason doesn't like, it's his ADP. Mahomes' current ADP on DRAFT.com is 32.1 overall. A third-round selection is a pricey pick for a quarterback, especially considering the depth at the QB position. It's arguably the deepest in fantasy football this season, with starting-level players often going undrafted in 10- and 12-team leagues.
Out of the top-12 finishers at the position last season, three (Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Dak Prescott) are being selected after pick 100, showing just how deep it is in 2019 fantasy football.
Zachariason also notes that it typically takes an outlier season to finish as the year's top quarterback. He argues that Mahomes' 50-touchdown year was just that, and that regression is likely to follow an outlier season.
So while nearly everyone (Zachariason included) views Mahomes as this year's top quarterback, he's unlikely to pay off his draft cost without either repeating or improving on his incredible performance from his 2019 NFL MVP season. Instead of taking Mahomes in the third round, it may be wise to spend your early-round picks at another position.
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