NFL Week 1 ATS Matchups to Exploit

Jason Schandl
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While the NFL may not have the massive disparity in team quality that we see in college football, there are still a fair number of projected blowouts in Week 1's slate of games. In fact, there are six teams currently listed as at least 6.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook.

With that in mind, here are three NFL matchups that could potentially be exploited against the spread (ATS) in Week 1.

All NFL betting odds and spreads are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.

1. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5)

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Over 70.0 percent of the ATS bets in this game have come in on the Kansas City Chiefs, but there's reason to believe the Jacksonville Jaguars have a chance here. The Jags have one of the best defenses in the NFL and get the benefit of opening the season on their home field. Patrick Mahomes' Week 5 meeting with the Jags in 2018 was the only time he failed to throw a single touchdown in a game, and it was also one of only three games in which he threw multiple interceptions last season. The Chiefs looked nearly unbeatable at times in 2018, but the Jags' defense is one of the few that has a shot to keep them in check.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1) vs. San Francisco 49ers

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No team threw for more yards than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 5,125 last year, and they also finished third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage. To keep up with this offense, opponents need to score. The Bucs' porous defense allowed that to happen plenty in 2018, but they improved by adding Devin White at linebacker and Ndamukong Suh on the defensive line. The San Francisco 49ers struggled to keep up with anyone on the scoreboard last year, ranking 21st in points per game (PPG), and even with Jimmy Garoppolo back their offense remains a question mark heading into 2019.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots (-6)

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The New England Patriots finished 2018 with the NFL's fifth-highest average point differential (+6.9). Despite their solid 9-6-1 record, the Pittsburgh Steelers ranked only 11th at +4.3. The Patriots had an especially high average point differential of +16.3 at home in 2018, winning all eight of their home games, with seven of the eight wins coming by at least seven points. Additionally, the Patriots have won each of their last two regular-season home games against the Steelers, with the average margin of victory being 10.5 points in those contests.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.