Most Intriguing Super Bowl 54 MVP Betting Values Based on Team Win Probability

Jason Schandl
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce celebrate after a touchdown.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce celebrate after a touchdown. / Peter Aiken/Getty Images

With our Super Bowl LIV matchup set between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers, FanDuel Sportsbook has also released a full list of odds to win Super Bowl MVP.

As usual, it's quarterbacks at the top of the list, with Patrick Mahomes (+110) and Jimmy Garoppolo (+240) leading the way.

Super Bowl MVP 2020

Given there has only been one player in NFL history (Chuck Howley, in 1971) to win Super Bowl MVP while playing for the losing team, one of the first steps to deciding on an MVP bet is considering which team will win. FanDuel Sportsbook, of course, also has odds for that, with the Chiefs' moneyline available at -128, and the 49ers sitting at +112.

If we convert these betting lines to implied probabilities, we can see how likely it's being implied that a player wins the MVP award, given their team wins.

For example, Patrick Mahomes at +110 is implied a 47.6% chance to win the award, and the Chiefs are implied 56.1% to win. So that implies Mahomes is 84.8% to win the award if the Chiefs win. This means that if you think Mahomes is more likely to win MVP than that, he'd be a good bet. If you think he's less likely, you'd want to stay away.

Unlike the regular season MVP award, this one isn't always a lock to go to a QB, having gone to non-QBs in three of the last six Super Bowls. That suggests Mahomes' betting line may not offer much value here.

More interesting Chiefs, if you're expecting their passing game to get the job done, could be Tyreek Hill (+1700), Travis Kelce (+2000) and even Sammy Watkins (+3500). They're implied at 9.9%, 8.5% and 5.0%, respectively, to win the award if the Chiefs hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

If you're banking on a 49ers win, things are a little more balanced. In their run-heavy offense, Jimmy Garoppolo (+240) is only implied at 62.4% to win the award if the 49ers win. NFC Championship hero Raheem Mostert (+750) is at 24.9%. If you expect a San Francisco win to be especially pass or run-heavy, either one of these guys make for intriguing bets.

Don't forget about defense, either. Two of the last six players to win the award have been defenders, and they've won it four times since 2001.

That rate suggests Nick Bosa (+3500) may not offer much value, implied at 5.9% to win if the 49ers do, but a big-play threat like Tyrann Mathieu (+5500) could offer some interesting long-shot value, at just 3.2% to win if the Chiefs do.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.