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Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction, Odds, Betting Lines & Preview for NHL Stanley Cup Finals Game 5 on FanDuel

Elisha Twerski
Lightning vs Canadiens Game 5 predictions and odds for NHL Stanley Cup Finals.
Lightning vs Canadiens Game 5 predictions and odds for NHL Stanley Cup Finals. / Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

Lightning vs. Canadiens NHL Game 5 Info

NHL Playoffs Game 5 (Lightning Lead 3-1)
Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3) vs. Montreal Canadiens (24-21-11)
Date: Wednesday, July 7
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Amalie Arena — Tampa, FL

Lightning vs. Canadiens Moneyline, Total and Odds

All NHL odds, lines and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Lightning -240 | Canadiens +198
Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+122) | Canadiens +1.5 (-146)
Total: 5.5 — Over +132 | Under -162
Odds to win Stanley Cup: Lightning -1800 | Canadiens +1300

Lightning vs. Canadiens Predictions and Picks

  • Under 5.5 -168

Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Montreal Canadiens News, Analysis, and Picks

The Tampa Bay Lightning got a taste of their own medicine in Game 4. The Lightning powered through the first three rounds of the postseason, despite getting outplayed at five-on-five nearly every night. Tampa put up their most dominant performance of the postseason, finishing the game with an expected goals-for percentage of 70.7%, but it was the Montreal Canadiens that walked away victorious.

Carey Price rebounded after three sub-optimal outings, stopping 94.1% of shots on Monday night, including 80% from high-danger areas. Price needed to be sharp to help the Habs kill off a four-minute double-minor spanning the last minute of regulation and the first three minutes of overtime. It was a familiar version of Price from earlier this postseason that the Habs will need more of if they want to continue on their magical Stanley Cup Finals ride. That could be easier than expected in Game 5, as we've seen a more conservative Lightning offense at home this postseason.

The Bolts have attempted 23 or fewer shots at five-on-five in seven of 11 home games this season, including five of their last seven. That has brought chances down as well, as the Lightning have attempted eight or fewer high-danger chances in five of seven and 25 or fewer scoring opportunities in four of five. Output is contraindicated with production, though, as the Lightning have seen a surge in scoring over their last five home games. Tampa has scored 21 goals over that span for a 13.5% shooting percentage. We should expect that to work back down towards average as output balances out with production.

Scoring hasn't been a priority for the Habs, as their main goal has been to limit the Lightning's chances. The Habs haven't attempted more than 10 quality chances in the Stanley Cup Finals, with an average of 7.8 chances per game. Montreal didn't attempt more than 20 scoring chances in either of their two most recent home games and have scored just two high-danger goals through four games.

If Montreal is planning on getting back in this series, then they'll need a tighter defensive effort and a standout performance from Price. The Lightning's output at home is inflated relative to production and is due to regress towards the mean. All of this aligns with a low-scoring game. We're taking the under on Wednesday Night in Tampa.

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