NHL - Betting

Lightning vs Islanders Odds, Betting Lines, Picks & Preview for NHL Playoffs Game 7 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Elisha Twerski
Tampa Bay Lightning v New York Islanders - Game Six
Tampa Bay Lightning v New York Islanders - Game Six / Bruce Bennett/Getty Images
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Lightning vs Islanders NHL Game 7 Info

NHL Playoffs Game 7 (Series Tied 3-3)
Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3) vs. New York Islanders (32-17-7)
Date: Friday, June 25, 2021
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Amalie Arena

Lightning vs Islanders Moneyline, Total and Odds

All Islanders-Lightning odds are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: Lightning -176 | Islanders +148
Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+162) | Islanders +1.5 (-196)
Total: 5.5 – Over +136 | Under -168
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Lightning +130 | Islanders +330

Lightning vs Islanders Predictions and Picks

  • Islanders +148

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Islanders News, Analysis, and Picks

It all boils down to this -- Game 7, with a spot in the Stanley Cup Finals on the line. There have been plot twists throughout this series, with the Tampa Bay Lightning and New York Islanders appearing to build momentum at different points. Now, the team that wins tonight guarantees themselves a seven-game series with the Montreal Canadiens for a chance to hoist the Stanley Cup.

From an advanced metrics perspective, the Islanders have been the better team. New York has outplayed the Lightning at five-on-five in five of six games this series, posting a cumulative 51.2% expected goals-for percentage in this series. The one game significantly impacted that percentage that they were outplayed in, as they put up a 32.1% expected goals-for percentage in an 8-0 defeat in Game 5. In reviewing their game scores, it's evident that Game 5 was the exception and not the rule.

In every other game this series, the Lightning were held to eight or fewer quality chances at five-on-five and 24 shots or fewer in four of the other five games.

The Islanders have improved their efficiency at limiting the Lightning's scoring opportunities, holding Tampa to 23 or fewer in three of the last five. Despite that, the Bolts have outscored the Islanders 14-10 at five-on-five this series, inconsistent with the metrics. Tampa continues to be propelled by a dangerous, if not an unsustainable, combination of offense and goaltending. The Lightning scored 12 straight goals against the Islanders between Games 4 and 6, perfectly illustrating how lucky they have been this postseason.

Tampa remains the league leader in PDO, with a current combined shooting and save percentage of 1.045. Their PDO remains elevated in this series, 1.032 through six games, but as we can see, it is starting to come back down towards average. Over the last 12 seasons, no team has finished the playoffs with a PDO above 1.039, indicating what to expect from the Lightning, if not tonight, then over the coming games.

We're expecting Tampa Bay's season to come to an end tonight. The Lightning continue to get outplayed. They have an actual goals-for percentage over 13.0% higher than expected, resulting in an inevitable fall back down towards average. Islanders moneyline is the play to make.


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