Lightning vs Canadiens NHL Game 2 Info
NHL Playoffs Game 2 (Lightning Lead 1-0)
Tampa Bay Lightning (36-17-3) vs. Montreal Canadiens (24-21-11)
Date: Wednesday, June 28, 2021
Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Amalie Arena
Lightning vs Canadiens Odds, Total and Moneyline
All Lightning-Canadiens odds are available on FanDuel Sportsbook
Moneyline: Lightning -220 | Canadiens +184
Spread: Lightning -1.5 (+132) | Canadiens +1.5 (-160)
Total: 5.5 – Over +138 | Under -170
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Lightning -550 | Canadiens +430
Lightning vs Canadiens Predictions and Picks
- Under 5.5 -170
- 60-minute tie +320
Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens News, Analysis, and Picks
The Tampa Bay Lightning dismantled the Montreal Canadiens in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals, winning 5-1. For the third time in four games, the Bolts put up an expected goals-for percentage of 61.1% across all strengths in Game 1. The play at five-on-five was much closer, with the Lightning holding a 53.2% advantage in expected goals-for, with the Canadiens out-possessing and out-chancing the Lightning in scoring chances.
What do the Habs need to do to be more competitive in Wednesday night's affair? One of the keys to stopping the Lightning is not giving their powerplay room to operate. Tampa is 9-3 when they score on the powerplay this postseason. With the number of skilled forwards the Lightning have, the extra space of the powerplay creates too many high-probability chances for opponents to limit. Montreal should recognize this and put forward a more disciplined effort in Game 2.
Tampa relies on high-danger goals to get past their opponents, recording 10 high-danger goals at five-on-five over their last seven games. When we factor in goal scoring across all strengths, the Lightning have recorded 35 goals from high-danger areas in the playoffs, including eight over their last four games. The Habs have shown how structurally sound they can be as they have limited their opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances at five-on-five in 10 of their last 12 games, including four straight. Tampa has been equally stingy in its own end, holding opponents to single-digit high-danger chances at five-on-five in 15 of its 19 playoff games.
Quality chances should be at a premium tonight. Carey Price wasn't himself on Monday, stopping a playoff worst 81.5% of shots. Price posted a 94.5% save percentage in the five games leading up to his last outing and has a 92.8% save percentage this postseason. Whether Price was out of his element, or the Lightning got lucky with some friendly bounces in front of the net, we should expect a rebound effort from Price tonight.
In assessing the Lightning's chances tonight, we can't look past their PDO that continues to climb beyond record-setting highs. The Lightning put up a 1.133 PDO in Game 1, bringing their postseason total up to 1.046. Their shooting and save percentages are outside of the normal range, suggesting that they are at risk of running dry offensively and seeing more goals against. Even if one of those changes occurs, Tampa is at risk of faltering.
The Habs can't play the Lightning's game if they hope to compete for the Stanley Cup. There should be an increased emphasis on tidying up their defensive zone coverage tonight and a more disciplined effort to avoid giving the Lightning room to operate. That should lead to a low-scoring game that needs overtime to sort out a winner.
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