Kyler Murray Passing Yards and Touchdowns Prop Bets Eerily Similar to Sam Darnold's Rookie Numbers

Max Staley
Arizona Cardinals Introduce Kyler Murray
Arizona Cardinals Introduce Kyler Murray / Christian Petersen

Cover Photo: Getty Images

Just one offseason ago, the Arizona Cardinals committed $16 million to Sam Bradford, $5 million to Mike Glennon and traded a first, third and fifth-round pick to move up for Josh Rosen. Well, Bradford and Glennon are now off the team, and it appears Rosen is next, as the Cardinals drafted Kyler Murray with the first pick of the 2019 NFL Draft.

Given that Arizona invested so much in Murray, he'll likely have high expectations during his rookie campaign. However, two separate prop bets for Murray's regular season passing touchdowns and his passing yards project a season very similar to the one New York Jets QB Sam Darnold had in his first year.

Darnold had 2,865 passing yards and 17 passing touchdowns in 13 games during his rookie season and Murray's over/under's are set at 3,100.5 passing yards and 17.5 passing TDs, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Four of the last five quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall exceeded 18 touchdowns in their rookie season. The only exception was Jared Goff, and he only played seven games in his first year in the NFL. Additionally, four of those five also exceeded 3,101 passing yards as a rookie, with the lone exception again being Goff.

While the recent history of quarterbacks who went No. 1 certainly bodes well for Murray's chances at exceeding these totals, Rosen had trouble as a rookie last season with the Cardinals. He passed for 2,278 yards and 11 touchdowns in 13 starts, so it's possible Murray could struggle as well.

Arizona QBs were also sacked 52 times in 2019, tied for fifth worst in the NFL, and they don't have many talented pass catchers beyond future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald. And the players surrounding Murray aren't all that different from last season's roster.

All in all, it's tough to say whether Murray will reach these totals. While the recent history with No. 1 overall picks suggests Murray could hit these projected totals, the Cardinals' lack of offensive talent could hinder the Oklahoma product this coming NFL season.

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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.