Covering the Spread: A Glaring Lack of Home-Field Advantage in the Bundesliga

Another week has come and gone in the Bundesliga, and yet again, no discernible home-field advantage has been seen. With no fans in attendance due to the coronavirus, the gap between home and road teams is perhaps narrower than it's ever been. Last year in the league, home teams enjoyed a 0.4 goals-per-game advantage throughout the course of the season. And while it's been just two weeks so far since the return to play, road teams are currently out-scoring opponents by a 0.77-goal margin. Some of this change has been due to the strength of teams playing away from home, and the sample is still small, but this trend could be crucial in the betting markets going forward.

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