Chris Godwin and Mike Evans Fantasy Value May See Downgrade With Tom Brady at Quarterback for the Buccaneers

Jason Schandl
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans' fantasy football value could take a step back in 2020.
Chris Godwin and Mike Evans' fantasy football value could take a step back in 2020. / John Grieshop/Getty Images

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans' 2019 seasons made them one of the most dominant fantasy football duos we've ever seen. On a per-game basis, Godwin checked in at WR2, averaging 19.7 PPR fantasy points, while Evans was WR5, averaging 17.9.

Heading into the 2020 season with Tom Brady as their quarterback, the duo could see a significant downgrade in fantasy value this year.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans Fantasy Football Outlook 2020

Saying nothing of his real-world value to an NFL team, Jameis Winston's aggressive style was a boon for his receivers in fantasy football. He loves pushing the ball downfield, and his 10.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT) ranked second among qualifying passers in 2019. This wasn't a new development, either, as he ranked second (10.8 yards) in 2018.

Brady, on the other hand, ranked 18th in 2018 (7.9 yards) and tied for 23rd in 2019 (7.6 yards).

The safety of Brady's style may help his teams in the real world, but it doesn't provide as much fantasy value. Over the last two seasons Brady has generated an average of 1.61 PPR fantasy points per attempt for his receivers, while Winston has generated 1.74. That might not seem like a big difference on the surface, but if we're looking at guys like Evans and Godwin who average about 9 targets per game, that's almost 19 fantasy points over a 16-game season — about the difference between 11th (where Evans finished in 2018) and 18th in total fantasy scoring at the WR position.

There's definitely something to be said for the duo boosting Winston's numbers, while Brady had a lackluster receiving group last year, but Brady is turning 43 years old this season. A decline in efficiency could be more likely than an improvement at this point.

Godwin and Evans were also just overwhelmingly likely to regress even before Brady signed. They benefited from Winston throwing an NFL-high 626 pass attempts in 2019, and we almost never see a team able to support two true WR1 fantasy options.

Ultimately, Godwin and Evans aren't likely to just suddenly fall off a cliff and stop providing solid fantasy scoring. Both competing for looks in the same offense, especially with a reduction in high-scoring deep passes available, does cap both of their ceilings, though.

Each can still make for a solid top wideout on any fantasy squad, but banking on both to be top-five options again in 2020 would be a mistake.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.