Leafs vs Canadiens NHL Game 5 Info
NHL Playoffs Game 5 (Maple Leafs lead series 3-1)
Montreal Canadiens (24-21-11) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (35-14-7)
Date: Thursday, May 27
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Maple Leafs vs Canadiens, Moneyline, Total, and Odds
All NHL betting lines, odds and prop bets are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: Maple Leafs -250 | Canadiens +205
Spread: Maple Leafs -1.5 (+114) | Canadiens +1.5 (-134)
Total: 5.5 — Over (+108) | Under (-132)
Odds to Win Series: Maple Leafs -3500, Canadiens +1600
Odds to win Stanley Cup: Maple Leafs +350, Canadians +15000
Canadiens vs Maple Leafs Predictions and Picks
- Over 5.5 +108
- Tyler Toffoli over 0.5 goals +200
- Josh Anderson over 0.5 goals +290
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Montreal Canadiens News, Analysis, and Picks
Dominant might be the best word to describe the Toronto Maple Leafs' performances through four games this series. At five-on-five, the Leafs have outplayed the Montreal Canadiens in every game this series, and, after giving up five powerplays in the first game, have gone on to post an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% across all strengths in Games 2-4. The Leafs have posted a cumulative expected goals-for percentage of 66.1% through the last three games of the series.
Toronto has out-chanced Montreal 34-22 in high-danger chances creating an imbalance in high-danger output, with the Leafs outscoring the Habs 5-1 in high-danger goals. Game 3 was the only game in which the Habs out-chanced the Leafs, holding a marginal 10-9 advantage thanks to an up-tempo third period in which they attempted five high-danger chances and didn't allow any.
The Leafs have received above-average play from Jack Campbell to start the series, with Campbell improving his in-game save percentage every game since Game 1, culminating in a 32-save shutout performance in Game 4. There's only one way his save percentage goes from here, though, as his 96.5% playoff save percentage is beyond average and will regress towards the mean.
Dating back to the regular season, the Leafs have attempted at least 10 high-danger chances a game in five of their seven contests at home against the Habs. Scoring chances and shots are also on the high-end of the spectrum; Toronto has attempted 30 or more shots in five of seven and 30 or more scoring chances in four of seven.
Although the Habs have been outplayed, they are operating well below expected output. Montreal has scored four goals through four games thanks to a 3.5% shooting percentage. Based on Natural Stat Trick's algorithm, they should have 9.0 goals this postseason. Tyler Toffoli and Josh Anderson were the two leading goal scorers for the Habs this season. The two forwards have combined for 19 scoring chances, eight high-danger chances, and 19 shots, but only one goal. FanDuel Sportsbook has Toffoli's goal-scoring prop set at over 0.5 +200 and Anderson's at over 0.5 +290. Both props are worth a play.
The betting market continues to move in the Maple Leafs' direction, and rightfully so. The Leafs have dictated the pace of these games thus far, and that should be amplified now that they are returning home. However, we expect increased output from the Habs, while output catches up with production and Campbell works his way back down towards average. It's on that basis that we're taking over 5.5 at plus money.