NHL - Betting

Canadiens vs Golden Knights Prediction, Odds, Betting Lines & Picks for NHL Playoffs Game 6 on FanDuel Sportsbook

Elisha Twerski
Montreal Canadiens v Vegas Golden Knights - Game Five
Montreal Canadiens v Vegas Golden Knights - Game Five / Ethan Miller/Getty Images
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Canadiens vs Golden Knights NHL Game 6 Info

NHL Playoffs Game 6 (Canadiens Lead 3-2)
Montreal Canadiens (24-21-11) vs. Vegas Golden Knights (40-14-2)
Date: Thursday, June 24, 2021
Time: 8:00 pm EST
Venue: Centre Bell

Canadiens vs Golden Knights Odds, Total and Moneyline

All Canadiens-Golden Knights betting odds are available on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline: Canadiens +120 | Golden Knights -142
Spread: Canadiens +1.5 (-245) | Golden Knights -1.5 (+198)
Total: 5.5 – Over +130 | Under -160
Odds to Win Stanley Cup: Canadiens +310 | Golden Knights +400

Canadiens vs Golden Knights Predictions and Picks

  • Canadiens +120

Montreal Canadiens vs Vegas Golden Knights News, Analysis, and Picks

The Montreal Canadiens' best chance to punch their ticket to the 2021 Stanley Cup Finals comes tonight on home ice. The Habs dispatched the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 5, putting themselves in control of their own destiny. Once again, the betting market has the Golden Knights listed as chalk even though the advanced metrics continue to work in the Habs' favor.

Montreal continues to dictate the pace in this series. Although they were less successful at five-on-five in Game 5, posting an expected goals-for percentage below 50%, they again outplayed the Golden Knights across all strengths. That was the fourth time in five games in which the Habs have outplayed Vegas across all strengths, and they've also outplayed the higher-seeded Knights at five-on-five in three of five.

Since the start of the second round, the Habs continue to use home ice to their advantage. Montreal has posted a cumulative 57.4% expected goals-for percentage at five-on-five, outplaying their opponents in three of four. Other than their overtime win in Game 3, in which they were on the penalty kill four times and their head coach watching from home for the first time, the Habs have also posted an expected goals-for percentage above 59.0% across all strengths in the three other games. All told, Montreal is using advanced analytics to their advantage, and it's helping them win games.

As is typically the case with most NHL teams, the Knights haven't been as effective on the road as they have at home. Vegas has been outplayed at five-on-five in three of their last five and across all strengths in four of their last five. The Knights are playing with fire as they struggle on both ends of the ice. Scoring chances and high-danger opportunities are at a premium, as the Knights are averaging 7.0 high-danger chances per game and 19.8 scoring chances at five-on-five over their last five. Vegas has attempted more than nine quality chances and 23 scoring opportunities in just one of their last five road games.

Production metrics notwithstanding, the Knights also have to deal with crumbling goaltending metrics. We've seen in the past how a few bad outings impact Marc-Andre Fleury's psyche, and we could be witnessing that again in the semifinals. Fleury has posted an 88.0% save percentage over his last three starts, allowing a combined nine goals and dropping all three decisions. The Knights haven't indicated who starts in Game 6, but they could get a better outcome with Robin Lehner between the pipes.

The Canadiens have the Knights on the ropes and failing to win tonight shifts the momentum and home-ice advantage back in Vegas' direction. Carey Price has been brilliant this postseason, and Montreal's improved defensive play should continue to limit the number of high-danger shots he needs to stop to help the Habs notch the victory and move on to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Montreal's advanced metrics support that the Habs continue to outplay the Knights this series, yet they remain underdogs. We're backing the Habs to move on.


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