The Duel

Betting Trends Point to Bills Covering and Under Hitting in AFC Wild Card Matchup With Texans

David Kaestle
Josh Allen runs the ball during a game against the New England Patriots.
Josh Allen runs the ball during a game against the New England Patriots. / Maddie Meyer/Getty Images
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The Buffalo Bills will face off against the Houston Texans in the first game of the 2019-20 NFL Playoffs at 4:35 p.m. ET on Saturday, January 4. The Bills are currently 2.5-point road underdogs in this one, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Despite the Texans being the favorites, the scale starts to tip in the Bills' favor when we look at how these two teams have fared in similar situations throughout the 2019 season.

The Bills are 4-0-2 against the spread (ATS) as road underdogs on the year. The Texans are even worse in the other direction, finishing 2019 with a 1-5 ATS record as a home favorite. Additionally, the Bills were 8-2-2 ATS when playing against teams on equal rest. Since both teams obviously played in Week 17, that number applies here.

When it comes to the over/under, the trends once again paint a clear picture. In games with equal rest this season, the under has gone 9-3 for the Bills, as well as 5-1 when they have been underdogs on the road. The Texans, in those same situations, have seen the under go 7-4 and 4-2, respectively.

So while we have learned that anything can happen in the playoffs, these numbers and trends are certainly strong enough to take into consideration when placing your bets on this game.


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David Kaestle is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, David also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username davekaestle. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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