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Tonight's premier college basketball matchup between the No. 2 Duke Blue Devils and No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers could be a Final Four preview. It should be nerve-racking for bettors of either side, but there's a trend on the over/under total that could prove to be a bit more calming.
The game's total currently sits at 136.5 points, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, which is 5.5 points less than final total of their first matchup, a 72-70 win by Duke on Jan. 19. But, if you combine the average amount of points each team has allowed so far this season – UVA: 52.9, Duke: 65.2 – that 118.1 sum falls well short of tonight's projected total.
So bettors need to decide if these two ACC foes will be closer to their season averages or simply repeat what they did a few weeks back.
The total has gone under in each of the last five Duke games.— The Duel (@TheDuelSports) February 9, 2019
The total has gone under in three of the last four UVA games.
UVA has the nation's No. 1 defense, allowing 52.9 PPG.
Duke has the nation's No. 32 defense, allowing 65.2 PPG
Will the total stay under 136.5 points?
With UVA ranking No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense and Duke coming in at No. 32 – out of 356 NCAA Division I programs – that points to a likely lack of scoring this evening.
Plus, unders have been common for these two recently. Each of the last five Duke games have gone under, while three of the last four UVA had that same fate. In fact, 12 of the Cavaliers' 21 games this season have gone under the total, while the Blue Devils had 15 of their 22 games hit the under with an additional two that pushed.
Duke's 25-percent conversion rate on the total going over this season is actually second worst in the nation.
As a bettor, it's incredibly difficult to manage your nerves while sitting through an under bet. However, when you have trends like these, you'll likely have a smile on your face at the end of the game.
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Al Walsh is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Al Walsh also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username 14AdotWalsh. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.