What do Todd Gurley and Everson Griffen have in common?
Well, they're both NFL players, both play in the NFC, and you can bet on both of them in this extremely specific NFL prop bet.
Todd Gurley II finishes with the most Rushing Yards AND Everson Griffen finishes with the most Sacks in the 2018-19 regular season.— TheDuel (@TheDuelSports) August 31, 2018
Odds via Paddy Power: 7⃣5⃣ / 1⃣
The reason this bet has such long odds isn't because of Gurley. Taking Gurley to lead the NFL in rushing is actually a pretty great bet on its own. He fell just 22 yards short of Kareem Hunt in total rushing last season, which is good because a running back hasn't led the league in rushing back-to-back years since 2007. That places Gurley in prime position to lead the league in 2018.
Griffen is the harder part of this equation, and he's the driving reason the odds are so lucrative. Going back 15 years, no player has led the league in sacks with fewer than 15.5 over the course of the season. It's happened a few times, most recently with Vic Beasley Jr. in 2016. The most sacks Griffen has ever had in a season was 13.0 in 2017.
In other words, he's coming off a career year, but a year that wouldn't have been enough to lead the league in sacks at any point in the past 15 years.
#Vikings Everson Griffen on injury: “I’m healthy, I’m blessed and very thankful to play football. I can’t wait to go up against San Francisco (in the Sept. 9 opener). I’m ready to play football.... It was frustrating (sitting out). But I’m back now and I’m healthy."— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) August 31, 2018
Griffen is certainly talented enough to hit 15.5 sacks in 2018, but that's a minimum to lead the league, so he needs to increase his production by at least three or four sacks to even have a shot. It's a bit hard to believe that will happen in the ninth year of his career.
Still, it's just believable enough that, just maybe, a small bet can end up paying huge at the end of season. After all, Griffen is still one of the best pass rushers in the NFL.
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Ian McCafferty is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Ian McCafferty also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username itmccaff. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.