Fantasy football isn't just about hitting on that breakout player, a la Todd Gurley in 2017. It's about finding value in the right spots. When everyone else is picking mediocre talent, you need to select the right guy who bursts onto the scene.
Of course, the inverse of that means there are some players who will simply be picked way too high. These players fit that mold.
7. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 30.8)
T.Y. Hilton has been a fantasy darling in the past, but his reputation is the only reason he's being picked so high. Right now, the Colts' top wideout is going in the third round. That's extremely high for a player who didn't have 60 catches last season. A huge part of his stock hinges on Andrew Luck's ability to return to his old form, which is far from a guarantee. Even if he does, we're talking about a player who has never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season. He's a good player, but the value simply isn't there in the third.
6. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (ADP: 25.0)
Before you search my address or try to find some sort of outlet to scream at me, this is all about where he's drafted. Aaron Rodgers is going between the second and fourth round in most leagues now, but as fantastic as he is, there's no reason to pick a quarterback that early. Think about some of the best quarterbacks from last season. Carson Wentz went nowhere near that early. Deshaun Watson wasn't drafted in most leagues. Philip Rivers has thrown for 4,000+ yards in nine of the last 10 seasons but he isn't even close to where Rodgers is. The point is, there are a lot of fantasy-relevant QBs available later in the draft, so wait to draft a QB.
5. Amari Cooper, WR, Oakland Raiders (ADP: 35.6)
Amari Cooper didn't crack 50 catches last season and dropped a bunch of targets. Yes, Michael Crabtree is gone, but it's not like Cooper is going to get a lot more targets. He already had 96 last season. Even if those do increase, do we really think he's going to get 30 more looks? Cooper hasn't proven to be the explosive player he's deemed to be, and should be avoided anywhere in the early rounds.
4. Ronald Jones II, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 76.2)
Everyone is looking for the next Alvin Kamara or Kareem Hunt. If there's a rookie entering an open situation, people think they can be the next player that can explode onto the scene and takeover the fantasy world. Ronald Jones II is considered one player who could be that guy, but right now, he's the backup behind Peyton Barber. If his depth chart position isn't enough, coaches have questioned his pass-catching ability and are concerned about him transitioning to the pro game. That's a ton of negatives for a player who's getting picked in the seventh or eighth round.
3. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinatti Bengels (ADP: 23.6)
Joe Mixon came into last season as a player who could potentially breakout. Now, a year removed from that, he still has the same kind of buzz around him despite the lack of production we've seen. Averaging 3.5 yards per carry is nothing to be excited about, and his four touchdowns certainly aren't a sweetener. Jeremy Hill is gone, but the Bengals picked another running back early in the draft in Mark Whalton. With Gio Bernard fielding most of the receiving opportunities along with Whalton's arrival, it's hard to imagine Mixon living up to the second-round hype he's getting.
2. Alex Collins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 35.8)
Alex Collins is one of those players who should be better than he is, which is why too many people are picking him in the second or third round this year. He's a monster when he gets the ball, averaging a gaudy 4.6 yards per carry last season. The only problem is, he doesn't get the ball enough to be considered a bellcow. He only had 20 carries twice last season, and is a non-factor in the passing game.
1. Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 72.2)
We all know he's a backup right? Handcuffs are important, but not where he's getting selected. He's currently injured and is expected to miss time, but is still somehow being picked early due to his "upside." Penny is even getting drafted in front of the team's actual starter, Chris Carson (ADP 91.6). The Seahawks have an awful offensive line and are committed to chucking the ball too often for a backup to be considered a good pick here.
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Dan O'Shea is not a FanDuel employee. Although Dan O'Shea is providing DFS gameplay advice, Dan O'Shea does not play on FanDuel and does not have a FanDuel username. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.