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3 Best Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets for Chiefs vs Bills AFC Championship Game

Isaiah De Los Santos
Best Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game.
Best Patrick Mahomes prop bets for Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game. / David Eulitt/Getty Images

The AFC Championship Game showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills is less than two days away. Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be a huge part of his team's shot at making a second consecutive Super Bowl and defending their championship title. After clearing concussion protocol, Mahomes is ready to suit up Sunday.

For bettors who want to keep a particularly close eye on Mahomes throughout this Chiefs-Bills clash, here are the three best Patrick Mahomes prop bets, per odds provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets AFC Championship Game

1. Patrick Mahomes - Passing Yards: Under 308.5 (-112)

It's noticeably clear that Mahomes is a prolific passer, placing second in the league in passing yards this season with 4,740. Surrounded by elite weapons like Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, it's no surprise that Mahomes has eclipsed 309-plus passing yards in half of his 16 games played this season. However, history points to this being a difficult number for the QB to hit in the playoffs, as he's only thrown for over 308 yards just once in his six career postseason games. Against a slightly-above-average Bills defense and nursing a neck injury, it's hard to see Mahomes hitting the over.

2. Patrick Mahomes - Rushing Yards: Under 16.5 (-102)

Not only is Mahomes dealing with the neck ailment he picked up last week in the Divisional Round, but he also has a toe injury that's been kept under wraps regarding its severity. With the neck injury, it was already probable that Kansas City wouldn't put Mahomes in many running situations, but also accounting for his bum toe, he's not likely to take off on the run even if the opportunity presents itself. Wanting to keep Mahomes' head and lower body safe, don't expect many (if any) rushing yards from the QB on Sunday.

3. Patrick Mahomes - Passing TDs: Under 2.5 (-130)

Mahomes can truly light up the scoreboard with all of the Chiefs' weapons, but it'd be a tall task to put up 3 passing TDs against the Bills. The quarterback has only hit 3 or more passing touchdowns in six of his 16 games this year. Furthermore, he totaled just 2 passing TDs when he faced this same Buffalo team in Week 6, and that was at full strength. More than half of Mahomes' passing touchdowns came in the red zone (21) this year, but it's very possible that head coach Andy Reid will depend on his running backs to punch it in from close range rather than put his injured QB at risk of a blitz, which gives the quarterback serious potential to hit the under.

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