Wednesday Night NCAAM Pick: Boise State vs Air Force Prediction

Air Force v Boise State
Air Force v Boise State / Loren Orr/GettyImages

Tonight's NCAAM showdown features a Mountain West clash between rivals. The dominant Boise State Broncos head to the disappointing home of the Air Force Falcons in tonight's primetime battle. Let's dive into the Boise State vs Air Force matchup in this forecast and determine a best bet for this Wednesday Night NCAAM prediction.

Wednesday Night NCAAM Pick: Boise State vs Air Force Prediction

The Broncos enter this game with a 19-6 overall record and are tied amongst the top of the Mountain West with a 10-2 conference record. The Falcons, on the other hand, enter with a dismal 10-13 overall record and sit near the bottom of the conference with a 3-9 record. Does Air Force have what it takes to upset Boise State on their home court tonight?

Boise State

The Broncos enter this game ranked 40th overall in the KenPom rankings. They are led primarily by their defense, which ranks 11th overall in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are one of the best at lengthening opponents' possession times as they rank 34th in the longest defensive length of possession this season. Across all Four Factors metrics, Boise State ranks top 100 defensively. They are 50th in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), 89th in defensive turnover percentage (TO%), 3rd in defensive rebounding percentage (DRB%), and 90th in defensive free throw rate (FTR).

Offensively, Boise State is average across the board. They have the 129th ranked adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom and one of the slowest adjusted tempos in the nation, coming in at 302nd overall. Their average offensive possession length is ranked 278th overall as well. Regarding the Four Factors, the Broncos are 212th in eFG% and 152nd in TO%. Both those numbers are merely middle of the pack and provide no added punch offensively. However, they rank top 70 in both ORB% and FTR. If Air Force has any chance at stopping this Broncos' offense, they will have to limit Boise State's trips to the charity stripe and attack the boards.

Air Force

The Falcons have their hands full tonight. They struggle on both sides of the ball this season, but the offense is the biggest issue. Air Force has the 306th ranked adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom and averages 95.9 points per 100 possessions. The three significant areas of concern for this offense are their inability to protect the ball, the lack of offensive rebounds, and their ineptitude when getting to the free-throw line. They are putting up a 52% effective field goal percentage (90th ranked), but that is the only bright spot on this offense. They also operate at the 15th slowest adjusted tempo in the nation, while their average length of offensive possessions ranks the 5th slowest in NCAAM.

Although the Falcons' offense ranks better than their defense, the defensive side isn't much to write home about. They come in with the 160th rated adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and can cause turnovers with the best. Air Force's 50.4% effective field goal percentage on defense ranks 199th in the nation, their free throw rate is 337th, and their defensive rebounding percentage is 226th. Air Force will need to rely on causing turnovers on defense to keep this game from getting out of hand early.

Boise State vs Air Force Prediction and Pick

The Broncos' top-tier defense should negate the above-average eFG% of the Falcons. With their 11th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency combined with two of the slowest adjusted tempos in the nation (302nd and 344th), this game should be a low-scoring, snail's pace where both teams struggle to put up 60 points. On offense, Boise State will slow things down (278th in average offensive possession length), and their eFG% will cause them to miss plenty of shots even if Air Force's poor defense isn't the leading cause of it. Take the under 120.5 points (-106) in tonight's Boise State-Air Force matchup at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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