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NFL Week 15 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 15's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
NFL Week 15 Predictions
Falcons at Buccaneers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -4.5
Total Prediction: 42.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Jets at Jaguars Prediction
Spread Prediction: Jaguars -9.9
Total Prediction: 42.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Currently projecting Justin Fields as starter for the New York Jets.
Cardinals at Texans Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -7.9
Total Prediction: 43.7
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Bills at Patriots Prediction
Spread Prediction: Patriots -2.8
Total Prediction: 47.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: I get my spread by blending two separate models, one of which adjusts more aggressively for schedule than the other. In that model (after accounting for homefield and the New England Patriots' bye), I'd have the Patriots favored by 0.4 points. If even that model -- which is far more skeptical of the Patriots -- still thinks they should be favored, then I'm willing to bet their moneyline as things stand.
Chargers at Chiefs Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -6.8
Total Prediction: 48.3
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Firing on either the Kansas City Chiefs or the over will be tough with how they played in Week 14, but this offense can still have juice when they're not facing an elite defense. I think we'll get a reminder of their upside here, so I'm willing to buy in, whether that's via the spread, total, or team total once it's posted.
Raiders at Eagles Prediction
Spread Prediction: Eagles -8.9
Total Prediction: 39.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Betting against the Philadelphia Eagles has been profitable recently, and I'm showing value once again with the Las Vegas Raiders. They're just not quite as inspiring of a side as what the Eagles have faced recently, so pulling the trigger here will take more courage.
Ravens at Bengals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bengals -0.5
Total Prediction: 48.9
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: Even with no Tee Higgins for the Cincinnati Bengals, I can't get anywhere near the market. The Baltimore Ravens just haven't been efficient for a while now, so both the Bengals' moneyline and the under make sense to me.
Commanders at Giants Prediction
Spread Prediction: Giants -3.6
Total Prediction: 52.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: A bit worried about the total here with how conservative the New York Giants' offense was before their bye. But both of these defenses suck, and both offenses have shown they can be efficient for stretches. So while the model is likely too high, I don't mind the over here at all.
Browns at Bears Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bears -7.5
Total Prediction: 38.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Titans at 49ers Prediction
Spread Prediction: 49ers -13.1
Total Prediction: 47.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Lions at Rams Prediction
Spread Prediction: Rams -5.2
Total Prediction: 51.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Panthers at Saints Prediction
Spread Prediction: Saints -0.2
Total Prediction: 39.8
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Thoughts: The Carolina Panthers are volatile, and the New Orleans Saints are frisky, so I'm willing to back the Saints' moneyline here.
Packers at Broncos Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -2.2
Total Prediction: 45.6
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Colts at Seahawks Prediction
Spread Prediction: Seahawks -11.1
Total Prediction: 43.2
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Vikings at Cowboys Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -7.3
Total Prediction: 48.0
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
Dolphins at Steelers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Steelers -3.2
Total Prediction: 43.4
Betting Odds
Moneyline
Spread
Total Match Points
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
