4 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 15

We're at the point in the season where we know what every player's role is likely to be.

While that is great for us in the player prop markets, sportsbooks have the same data. We just have to decide if there are points where they are either under- or over-emphasizing that data in order to find edges.

I do think some of those edges exist for Week 15 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

Which NFL player props stand out most across Sunday's slate? Let's dig in.

All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

NFL Prop Picks for Week 15

Rashee Rice Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Last week was rough for Rashee Rice and the Kansas City Chiefs, but it's clear he's the focal point of the offense. The market is underselling the value of that role.

We're up to a seven-game sample since Rice's return from suspension. In those games, he's averaging 9.6 targets for 74.3 yards per game on a 27.7% target share. He has gone over this mark of 63.5 yards in 4 of those 7 games.

The Los Angeles Chargers have been good at limiting receiver production this year, but most of that is because they don't let up the long ball. That's not a huge issue for Rice, who gets most of his production near the line of scrimmage. It's not a bad enough matchup to scare me off of a guy whose role is better than what the market is implying.

Jayden Higgins Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

It feels like prop lines have been slow to catch onto the fact that Jayden Higgins is now a key piece in the Houston Texans' passing game.

From Week 10 on, Higgins has played more than half the snaps in every game despite having Nico Collins back in the lineup. Higgins has turned an average of 6.6 targets per game into 46.8 receiving yards.

A lot of that sample came without C.J. Stroud, who is back and starting to find his groove. Against a struggling Arizona Cardinals defense, Stroud should be able to shred.

Higgins has averaged 2.2 deep targets (more than 15 yards downfield) per game in this time, so he's a candidate for alt markets. I just prefer the baseline given the potential for the Texans to build an early lead and shift toward the ground game.

Ashton Jeanty Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Even with Jalen Carter trending toward another absence, I can't get behind having this much faith in the Las Vegas Raiders' ground game.

The Raiders this year have averaged -0.12 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per rush attempt on early downs this year. The league average is 0.01, and no other team is worse than -0.08. It has been abysmal.

To their credit, the Raiders seem to realize this, leading to more work for Ashton Jeanty as a receiver. He has averaged 6.3 targets per game since their bye. That's exactly what you should do when you have someone with his talent: get the ball in his hands in space. It just doesn't translate to rushing yardage.

For the season, Jeanty has gone under 52.5 rushing yards in 8 of 13 games, including 6 of the past 7. Now, the Raiders are 11.5-point road underdogs against a Philadelphia Eagles team that's fighting for the playoffs. This doesn't feel like the time to expect Jeanty to suddenly ignite the Raiders' slumping ground game.

Ricky Pearsall to Record 50-Plus Receiving Yards (+194)

As the San Francisco 49ers come out of their bye, I'm expecting to see refreshed versions of Ricky Pearsall and Brock Purdy, who have finally had time to rest their battered bodies. Purdy's a value to me both for an anytime touchdown and with his rushing prop, and Pearsall is a clear alt-market candidate.

We have a three-game sample on Pearsall back in the lineup. He has been targeted on just 11.3% of his routes and is averaging 0.25 yards per route run. Lotta wind springs for my guy.

It's important to remember that Pearsall was a force before the injury, though. In the first three games, he averaged 93.7 receiving yards per game with a whopping 63.2% deep target share. Even since returning, that deep target share has been respectable at 23.1%; he and Purdy just haven't connected.

This is a great get-right spot as the two get healthier. The Tennessee Titans have allowed 1.82 yards per route run to opposing receivers, the second-highest mark in the league. They've also let up 12.9 yards per target on downfield passes, well above the league average of 10.1. Even in a game where the 49ers may not have to throw much, Pearsall has legit upside as he gets further removed from his injury.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.