With the new collective bargaining agreement passed, we can expect a flurry of NFL news as the March 18 opening of the league year approaches.
That has already started, with the Tennessee Titans and Ryan Tannehill agreeing to terms on a four-year contract extension. This could be a blow to his fantasy football outlook.
This isn't to say that Tannehill wasn't a terrific fantasy football option in his breakout 2019 season. He absolutely was, ranking third among all QBs in fantasy points from Week 7 (when he took over as the starter) to Week 16. The problem is, his efficiency is likely to undergo some serious regression in 2020.
Tannehill benefited from a soft schedule in the regular season. with seven of the 10 defenses he faced allowing top-14 fantasy production to QBs on the year. We saw his value drop off in the playoffs, when he completed just 52 percent of his passes for 80 yards per game in his first two playoff outings.
His 10.2 adjusted yards per pass attempt (AY/A) are also likely to come back down to earth. Even if we're buying that he's a completely different player than the guy who averaged 7.0 AY/A with the Miami Dolphins, 10.2 was good for the league lead in 2019, and jumping from middling draft bust to the most efficient QB in the NFL is pretty much unprecedented, and not something you're going to want to gamble on being a long-term trend.
Of course, the fantasy football season is a long way away, so it's hard to say whether he's going to offer much value in fantasy drafts or not. If he gets drafted as a top-five passer, with players counting on a repeat performance, you're probably best served to steer clear. As a high-upside gamble as a mid- to late-round option, however, there could still be some appeal to rolling the dice with Tannehill.
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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.