3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Thursday 5/8/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

Philadelphia Phillies at Tampa Bay Rays

First 5 Innings Run Line: Phillies -0.5 (-106)

Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Jesus Luzardo has been crushing it this season and should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup versus the Tampa Bay Rays.

Over seven starts, Luzardo is rocking a 2.94 xERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate, and 47.7% ground-ball rate. He's gone at least five innings in every outing, and he's allowed more than two earned runs just once.

While Tampa Bay loves to load up on righty sticks against southpaws, it hasn't actually been all that effective. The Rays' active roster is tied for the second-worst wRC+ (56) and fourth-worst ISO (.087) versus lefties this season, and even if we include their 2024 numbers, they remain inside the bottom four with an 87 wRC+ and .120 ISO.

Philadelphia's bats should be able to get on the board against Rays righty Ryan Pepiot, as well. Pepiot has put up pedestrian numbers over his seven starts, logging a 4.66 xERA, 21.0% K rate, and 8.4% BB rate. Home runs have been an issue so far, too, as he's coughed up 1.88 HR/9.

Against right-handed pitching, the Phillies' active roster is tied for 10th in wRC+ (112), and the dangerous bats of Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper could exploit Pepiot's home run woes.

Given the edge the Phillies should have in the opening frames, we should like their chances of getting out to a lead through five innings.

Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels

Under 8.5 Runs (-108)

Right-handers Chris Bassitt and Jose Soriano will toe the rubber in this Toronto Blue Jays-Los Angeles Angels matchup, and both could find success tonight.

Bassitt has simply been fantastic this season, producing a 3.01 xERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, and 4.2% walk rate. Although his results have taken a step back in his most recent starts, he should be able to put the clamps on an Angels lineup with the fourth-worst wRC+ (92) and second-worst K rate (26.3%) versus right-handers.

Meanwhile, Soriano doesn't put up flashy numbers, but his 63.9% ground-ball rate leads all qualified starters. He's been particularly lethal in same-handed matchups, owning a 2.54 xFIP and 68.5% ground-ball rate, which should help him get through a Blue Jays lineup that relies on production from righties Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, and Bo Bichette.

Further, Toronto just hasn't been a strong offense against RHP this year, as they're actually tied with the Angels in wRC+ (92) and are near the bottom in ISO (.114).

Between a pair of quality pitchers and struggling lineups, the under looks like the play here.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

Dodgers -1.5 (+108)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are averaging the third-most runs per game (5.49) and have Yoshinobu Yamamoto taking the mound tonight, which all sounds like bad news for the Arizona Diamondbacks.

In terms of results, no pitcher has been better than Yamamoto to begin 2025, as he leads all qualified arms in ERA (0.90) across seven starts. While some regression is to be expected, it's not like he doesn't have sparkling underlying numbers, too, as he leads MLB in xFIP (2.32) and is second in ground-ball rate (61.5%) and fourth in strikeout rate (32.0%).

Admittedly, this is a tough matchup for Yamamoto against a Diamondbacks team with a 123 wRC+ versus right-handers. However, even if Yamamoto isn't perfect, he should get run support from his teammates against D-Backs starter Brandon Pfaadt.

Pfaadt has posted solid results but carries a worrisome 5.31 xERA alongside meh marks in K rate (20.7%) and hard-hit rate (45.5%). Los Angeles has been even better than Arizona against righties (127 wRC+), so we shouldn't be shocked if they put a hurting on Pfaadt.

With what looks like a fairly significant pitching advantage, we should feel comfortable backing the Dodgers to win by two or more runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.