Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Advent Health 400 in Kansas

At the top of the odds board for this week's NASCAR Cup Series race in Kansas, I'm close to showing value on a bunch of guys. I just can't quite pull the trigger.

I'm within about a percentage point of showing value on Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Tyler Reddick, all of whom are +800 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds. Given how easy it is to pass at this track, I don't care a ton about qualifying, and there's a good chance one of these drivers sees their odds extend after Saturday's session. Thus, I want to leave myself the flexibility to bet outrights after that time.

With that in mind, I'm skewing toward other markets to start things off this week. Luckily, I do think there's some good value in the top-5 and top-10 markets at FanDuel, and it's on drivers who have been fast at 1.5-mile tracks this year.

Let's start by laying out my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we'll discuss which bets I like prior to practice.

(NOTE: The sims have since been updated after practice and qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Kansas

NASCAR Betting Picks for Kansas

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+280)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +260. Thanks to quality speed in practice, Bowman is still a value for me at that number, and I am about a percentage point above his implied outright odds at +2100, as well.)

If I were to bet a pre-practice outright, it'd be on Alex Bowman at +2200. He's the only driver in the field I have a full percentage point above market. For now, though, I'm comfortable starting with the top five.

Bowman brings a quality blend of form and track history. Kansas suits his skills well, as evidenced by his 5-for-5 record in finishing top-10 at the track during the Next Gen era. He led 107 laps in one of those. He also nearly won his first race here in 2019, leading 63 laps before finishing second.

Bowman had a great run in Homestead, another multi-groove, 1.5-mile track where tire wear is a factor. He was leading with just a couple of laps left before ultimately finishing second. He also had great speed last week in Texas before a poor pit stop led to his getting involved in a crash during the final stage.

As a result of all of this, my model has Bowman at 30.0% to finish top-5, up from 26.3% implied. I do think the outright is firmly in play, too, if you want to take a bigger swing.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+500)

(UPDATE: Although Allmendinger is still +500 to finsh top 10, he slid in my sims due to poor speed on Saturday. Thus, if you haven't bet Allmendinger yet, I wouldn't recommend adding him to your betslip.)

AJ Allmendinger got caught up in the same crash as Bowman last week, ending his day early. That came after he qualified 10th and flashed elite speed in practice, so I'm going back to Dinger again here.

Prior to Texas, the Cup Series had run two races on 1.5-mile tracks this year. Allmendinger finished top-10 in both of those and had a top-11 average running position each time. He was also eighth in Homestead last year, his lone Cup race on a 1.5-mile track.

We saw Allmendinger run well on this track type in the Xfinity Series last year as he won at Las Vegas and had top-fives in Texas and Charlotte. Now that Kaulig Racing's speed is less offensive than it was the previous year and a half, he's able to turn his skills into results.

I've got Allmendinger at 20.7% to claim another top-10, up from 16.7% implied.

Noah Gragson to Finish Top 10 (+650)

(UPDATE: Gragson has since shortened to +550 to finish top 10, and he is no longer a value for me in this market.)

Noah Gragson is another driver -- like Bowman and Allmendinger -- who runs well at Homestead. It should be no surprise those skills have applied to Kansas, as well.

Gragson is a two-time winner here in the lower series, winning in the Truck Series in 2018 and Xfinity in 2022. On the Cup side of things, he finished ninth at Kansas last year, one of two top-10 runs for him on 1.5-mile tracks.

Front Row Motorsports' speed on this track type has been spotty at best in 2025. Their best finish on a 1.5-mile track is 11th from Zane Smith in Homestead, a race where Gragson finished 16th. Gragson, though, had an 11th-place average running position for the race after qualifying third, so he had enough speed to be competitive.

Even though I'm skeptical of this team right now, I'm willing to bite on Gragson when the market is being so forgiving.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Tyler Reddick to Win (+750)

After qualifying, I have value on all three of Tyler Reddick, William Byron (+800), and Alex Bowman (+2100) to win. Depending on how you structure your card, you can justify betting all three outright if you want.

If I'm picking just one, though, it's going to be Reddick.

Reddick had great speed in practice. The average speed of his 15 fastest laps was second to only Kyle Larson, and he qualified fourth.

Those sessions aren't where Reddick will be able to flex his muscle most. He excels at riding the wall, something you won't do nearly as much in practice or qualifying as you will in the race. Thus, those Saturday numbers should -- in theory -- sell Reddick's race pace a bit short.

With the practice and qualifying data included, I've got Reddick at 13.8% to win, second to only Larson. There's a big enough gap where I prefer him over Byron at +800, but again, the trio of Reddick, Byron, and Bowman are where I'm focusing.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Michael McDowell to Finish Top 10 (+350)

We had Michael McDowell to finish top 10 last week, and he was leading in the latter portion of the race. A crash ruined the day, but I think he's worth riding with again.

McDowell -- like Reddick -- was fast in practice. The average speed of his five fastest laps was third in the field, after adjusting for group speed differentials. He was eighth in the 15-lap split, and he qualified 11th.

In the prime of his career, McDowell has run well at tracks that feature lots of tire falloff like Darlington and Homestead. He showed some of that upside in Kansas last year as he finished 10th in the spring. When you put that in Spire equipment, which seems to be trending up, I have McDowell at 25.9% to finish top 10, up from 22.2% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Justin Haley to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

Speaking of Spire equipment, McDowell's teammate is a value as a longshot top-10 play, as well.

Justin Haley has been lingering around the top 10 on tracks like this in 2025. He was 10th in Homestead and top-15 in both Vegas and Texas. This is the kind of track where he excelled back in his Kaulig Racing days, too, so it shouldn't be a huge surprise.

Haley's 15-lap speed in practice wasn't great, so there are concerns he could fall off over a long run. But he was 11th in the five-lap split after accounting for his group, and he qualified 12th.

Getting a guy starting that high at +1100 for a top 10 should be enticing, and it is. My model has Haley at 11.0% to finish top 10, up from 8.3% implied.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.