Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Thursday 5/8/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the Los Angeles Dodgers at the Arizona Diamondbacks and lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Dodgers at Diamondbacks

Leg 1: Dodgers Over 4.5 Runs (-136)

The Dodgers currently tout the third-most runs and second-highest batting average and wOBA. LA has totaled an absurd 7.9 runs per game over the last 10 and have seen the over go 7-3 during the span.

Arizona has also recorded the sixth-most runs, but the Dodgers are putting an ace on the mound in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He sports a 0.90 ERA, 2.62 SIERA, and 2.32 xFIP. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks will have Brandon Pfaadt pitching, and his numbers are less inspiring with a 3.79 ERA, 3.56 SIERA, and 3.51 xFIP. Yamamoto's impact on this game, carrying -130 odds to go over 17.5 outs recorded has me hesitant about over 9.0 runs (-110). Instead, I'm shifting my focus to Los Angeles' individual total of 4.5 runs.

Pfaadt's numbers are solid, but there are clear chinks in his armor. For example, he holds 1.56 HR/9 allowed while ranking in the 43rd percentile of barrel rate allowed and 23rd percentile of hard-hit rate allowed. The Dodgers' order is loaded with sluggers, ranking second in SLG and home run percentage. Pitch usage is yet another concern for Pfaadt, for Los Angeles is among the top eight in runs above average against four-seam fastballs, changeups, sweepers, and sinkers (his four most-used pitches).

The D-backs' bullpen hasn't provided a ton of relief either with the sixth-highest ERA. After reaching at least seven runs in three of the last four, look for LA to turn in another over.

Leg 2: Freddie Freeman to Record 2+ Total Bases (-125)

If we are anchoring this Same Game Parlay on a successful day from the Dodgers' batting order, we should also look to take a batter prop. Freddie Freeman is an intriguing target thanks to his eye-popping .362/.435/.713 slash line. He's logged four multi-hit games over six outings in May and has recorded at least two bases in six of the last eight.

We mentioned Pfaadt's pitch usage, and this remains a concern against Freeman. He is hitting .317 against fastballs, .500 against changeups, .368 against sweepers, and .556 against sinkers. Additionally, Freeman is raking to the tune of .400 against right-handed hurlers compared to .250 versus southpaws. Good luck to Pfaadt.

Our MLB DFS projections are projecting the Dodgers' star first baseman for 2.74 total bases -- which has a 75.9% implied probability (or -315 odds) for at least two bases. Even three bases is drawing interest as this projection has a 51.6% implied probability (or -107 odds) for the mark compared to the current +180 line. Freeman sporting the third-highest home run projection of the day (0.35) is already enough to like this line, and the rest of our support rounds out the pick.

Leg 3: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-106)

Arizona has the sixth-lowest strikeout rate and has posted only six Ks in back-to-back games. Yamamoto is averaging 7.0 strikeouts per start and is in the 92nd percentile of K%. Something has to give.

Yamamoto leans on his 32.6% whiff percentage (90th percentile), and his four-seam fastball leads pitch usage (36.0%). Both categories become immediate concerns, for the Diamondbacks have the most runs above average against fastballs paired with the lowest whiff rate.

If Arizona is rarely swinging and missing and excels against Yamamoto's most-used pitch, this isn't a formula for success. One of Yamamoto's only weaknesses has been ranking in the 54th percentile of walk rate, and the D-backs have the second-highest BB% in baseball. Elite plate discipline from Arizona has me on under 5.5 strikeouts for Los Angeles' ace.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +388

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.