Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Friday 5/9/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the Philadelphia Phillies at the Cleveland Guardiansand lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Phillies at Guardians

Leg 1: Over 7.5 Runs (-115)

Over the last 10 games, the Phillies are averaging 6.0 runs per game, compared to the Guardians logging 7.0 runs per contest during the span. Yet, we are getting only a 7.5-run total for tonight's bout.

While Aaron Nola will take the mound with a solid 3.39 SIERA and 3.28 xFIP, his ERA has yet to come down at 4.61. For Cleveland, Gavin Williams' numbers aren't any better as he sports a 5.06 ERA, 4.25 SIERA, and 3.98 xFIP. With the two squads ranking 15th and 24th for the lowest bullpen ERAs, we have our angle for the over.

Starting with Nola's potential struggles, he posted HR/9s allowed of more than 1.30 his last two full seasons; that's continued with a 1.32 mark through seven starts this year. Plus, Nola is in the 44th percentiles of barrel rate and hard-hit rate allowed. The Guardians lean on power hitting with the 10th-highest home run percentage.

Shifting our focus to Williams' matchup, Philadelphia's batting order is a bear to deal with as they rank 11th in runs scored and 8th in wOBA. Similar to Nola, Williams has power concerns with his 1.69 HR/9 allowed while sitting in the 21st percentile of barrel percentage allowed and 32nd percentile of hard-hit rate allowed. The Phillies are racking up 2.0 dingers per game over their previous six. Plus, Philly has the second-most runs above average against fastballs -- which make up 53.4% of Williams' pitches.

I'm not expecting strong showings from either of these starters tonight, which should help keep each batting order's hot streak alive.

Leg 2: Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)

While I don't expect a strong showing from Nola in terms of runs allowed, that doesn't mean he won't rack up Ks. Despite an underwhelming ERA thus far, he's still logging 5.9 innings pitched per outing and has completed six innings in three consecutive starts.

Nola is also recording 6.4 strikeouts per start and has reached at least six punchouts in five straight appearances. Cleveland has the 11th-lowest strikeout rate, but it's also tied for the 6th-highest chase rate. This plays right into what Nola wants to do as he's in the 92nd percentile of chase percentage.

Among Nola's three most-used pitches, his knuckle-curve (most-used at 28.7%) has his best whiff rate by a large margin at 36.2% while the second-best is only 14.9%. It's safe to say Nola heavily leans on his knuckle-curve to stack Ks, and the Guardians have struggled against this pitch with the fourth-fewest runs above average versus it.

Our MLB DFS projections have Nola reaching 5.94 strikeouts.

Leg 3: Steven Kwan to Record 2+ Total Bases (+125)

Steven Kwan is hard to miss in this Guards batting order thanks to his team-high .333 batting average. Following a career-high .425 SLG in 2024, Kwan is on pace to set another career high with his current mark of .463. The fourth-year outfielder has steadily added to his potential for extra-base hits, opening up the path for him to notch two-plus bases.

In May, Kwan has totaled at least two bases in four of seven games. We even have favorable stats for his matchup against Nola, as well. For example, Kwan hits .336 against righties, compared to .325 when facing southpaws, and he's batting .277 against knuckle-curves, .381 versus four-seam fastballs, and .483 when seeing sinkers (Nola's most-used pitches).

Kwan has only a 24.9% chase rate this season paired with a 9.3 K%, harming Nola's chances of a punch-out. If we're targeting the over, another successful day from Cleveland's best contact hitter correlates well.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +575

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.