3 Best MLB Bets and Predictions for Friday 5/9/25

When you're betting a moneyline, run line, or total in Major League Baseball, you've got to weight a healthy number of factors -- from the starting pitcher to the bullpen and even defense.

After considering those factors, which bets stand out across today's action?

We're going to run through that below, discussing my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. For additional insights, you can also check out our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Betting Picks

St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals

Over 8.5 Runs (-114)

Erick Fedde and Mitchell Parker will be tonight's starting pitchers in this St. Louis Cardinals-Washington Nationals matchup, and both have demonstrated flawed profiles this season, which could lead to a high-scoring contest.

The Cardinals' Fedde has identical marks in strikeout rate and walk rate (13.0%), and unsurprisingly, that's led to a poor 5.48 xERA and 5.83 SIERA. Although the Nats have been a middle-of-the-pack offense against righties, they should be able to take advantage of a right-hander who isn't scaring anyone right now.

Parker has actually produced solid overall results for Washington, but his underlying metrics have pointed toward regression, and perhaps that's started to take hold after getting shelled in back-to-back starts. While the lefty has managed a 3.86 xERA that's been helped by a fantastic 3.8% barrel rate, his other numbers paint a more dreary picture as he's also put up a 5.64 SIERA, 12.0% strikeout rate, and 11.4% walk rate.

Considering Parker finished with mediocre-to-poor quality of contact numbers over 151 innings in 2024, it's fair to be skeptical that he'll continue to suppress barrels to this degree, and his .223 BABIP is unsustainable, as well.

St. Louis has been below average versus southpaws, but they've posted one of the highest walk rates in the split (10.6%), which should give them an edge against a pitcher with control issues. They could have as many as seven right-handed batters, and Parker's K rate dips to just 10.0% against that handedness.

Finally, the cherry on top is that both bullpens look vulnerable, too. Among active rosters, St. Louis' relievers rank last in strikeout rate (19.0%) while Washington's group owns the second-worst xFIP (4.47).

With some scoring potential for both lineups, the Cardinals and Nationals should be able to combine for nine or more runs.

Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers

Tigers -1.5 (-114)

There might not be a bigger pitching mismatch on Friday than Patrick Corbin versus Tarik Skubal. With that in mind, we should feel comfortable backing the Detroit Tigers to come away with a routine victory over the Texas Rangers.

Skubal has the shortest odds (+210) to win the AL Cy Young, which is backed by a 2.88 xERA, 2.59 SIERA, 30.3% K rate, and 3.1% BB rate. Over his last 5 starts, the southpaw has allowed 3 earned runs total across 30 innings.

This also isn't a daunting spot for Skubal against a Rangers active roster that has the third-worst strikeout rate against lefties (25.9%) and has struggled to score runs this season.

Corbin has admittedly performed better than expected through five outings, but we consistently saw him get knocked around in five straight campaigns before this year, so there's little reason to expect anything different now. It's not like his peripheral numbers are anything to get excited about, either, as he's sitting on a 4.69 xERA and 15.9% strikeout rate while allowing a very familiar 1.46 HR/9.

Detroit's active roster just so happens to be crushing it versus lefties (141 wRC+ and .209 ISO), as well, and they've been one of the league's hotter overall offenses in 2025. The Tigers have won by at least two runs in seven of the last eight games and could be poised to do so again tonight.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

First 5 Innings Run Line: Diamondbacks -0.5 (+102)

Betting against the Los Angeles Dodgers never feels great, but the Arizona Diamondbacks should have the upper hand in this pitching matchup between Roki Sasaki and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Now, that might seem strange when comparing Sasaki's 3.86 ERA to Rodriguez's 5.92. However, once we get past the surface numbers, there's a case that those marks should be reversed.

Despite holding opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer in all 7 of his starts, Sasaki has pretty underwhelming marks in xERA (5.52), SIERA (5.43), strikeout rate (17.9%), and walk rate (14.9%). He carries below-average marks in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and ground-ball rate, so it's not like he's limiting opponents through soft contact, either.

Further, Sasaki has recorded a concerning 6.15 xFIP against left-handed batters, and Arizona projects to have four lefties at the top of their lineup. As is, the Diamondbacks have been one of the league's top offenses versus right-handers, as their active roster ranks third in wRC+ (124) and first in ISO (.220).

Circling back to Rodriguez, his woes are due to a .349 BABIP that's due for major regression. Over 1,188 1/3 career innings, E-Rod has a .305 BABIP, so we have a pretty good idea of his normal baseline.

He isn't allowing a ton of loud contact, either, as he comes in with a 3.43 xERA, 7.1% barrel rate, and 34.5% hard-hit rate allowed. Throw in a 3.41 SIERA, 26.5% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate, and this sure doesn't look like the makings of a 5.92 ERA.

It's no secret that this is a dangerous Dodgers lineup, but at least Rodriguez will have a lefty-lefty matchup against two of LA's top sluggers in Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman. With the thinking that regression comes for both pitchers in opposite directions tonight, we should see Arizona come away with a lead after five frames.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.