The Duel

Matt Stafford's Projected Passing Totals Are Disrespectful

Max Staley
Matthew Stafford's projected totals are way too low.
Matthew Stafford's projected totals are way too low. / Leon Halip/Getty Images
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Those outside of Detroit do not seem to understand just how good Matthew Stafford was last year. Had a back injury not robbed him of the final eight games of the season, the Georgia product and former No. 1 overall pick would've been a legitimate candidate to win the Offensive Player of the Year award.

Now back to full health, there's no reason not to expect another monster campaign from the Lions' signal-caller. But his projected passing totals, from FanDuel Sportsbook, certainly do not reflect that. In fact, they're so low they can only be viewed as disrespectful.

The over/under for Stafford's passing yards has been set at 4,049.5, while his touchdown total is listed at over/under 25.5.

Last year was Stafford's first season under Detroit's new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. The results were undeniable. Through eight appearances, Stafford was on a 16-game pace to reach 4,998 yards and 38 touchdowns. He would've surpassed both totals with ease had he stayed healthy.

Perhaps the most obvious reason for Stafford's sudden spike in efficiency was the change in offensive systems. Jim Bob Cooter inexplicably turned Stafford into a check-down artist in 2018. Stafford's 6.9 average depth of target (aDOT) was the third-lowest mark among all qualified passers. That's a shocking misuse of one of the NFL's most dynamic arm talents.

Under Bevell, Stafford was finally allowed to let it rip again, leading the league with an aDOT of 10.6.

Surrounded by dangerous weapons in an offensive system that is finally tailored to his strengths, Stafford should be in for another monster year. His projections simply have no business being as low as they are.


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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.

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