Courtland Sutton Fantasy Outlook Has Him Severely Undervalued in 2020

Max Staley
Courtland Sutton's fantasy outlook includes huge potential.
Courtland Sutton's fantasy outlook includes huge potential. / Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

Courtland Sutton is used to being overlooked by now. He was overlooked in 2018 when he fell out of the first round of the NFL Draft. He was overlooked last year, when he carried an average draft position (ADP) of WR48. And yet, despite his breakout campaign, Sutton is getting overlooked again in 2020.

With an ADP of WR18, the Denver Broncos' No. 1 option looks poised to massively outperform that ranking in 2020.

Courtland Sutton Fantasy Football Value

Sutton finished as the WR19 in PPR formats last year, so you're essentially drafting him to do exactly what he did in 2019. There's reason to believe he's going to be even be better in 2020, though.

The Broncos look like they want to throw the ball much more frequently this season, having spent four of their first five picks in the 2020 NFL Draft on skill-position players or offensive linemen.

While the addition of Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler could cut into Sutton's 25 percent target share, both players are rookies, and fantasy players shouldn't worry about them eating into his volume all that much. Plus, Sutton maintained his 25 percent target share once the team switched to Drew Lock (Week 13-17).

His volume should remain more-or-less stagnant, but his efficiency could go through the roof. Defenses will have to account for the rookies like they did when Emmanuel Sanders was playing for Denver. Sutton was forced to singlehandedly carry the passing game once Sanders was traded, and his yards per target fell from 10.4 with Sanders to 7.7 without him.

Accordingly, his receiving yards per game also dropped from 80.6 to 60.9. Finally playing with some actual talent alongside him, Sutton should be much more efficient in 2020.

With the potential for a second-year leap from Lock in one of the league's most-improved offenses, it looks like Sutton is being drafted at his floor right now. But it's his ceiling that makes him such a compelling pick. We have him as the WR16 in our 2020 fantasy rankings.

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Max Staley is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Max Staley also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username mstaley1212. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in their articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.