Home Run Picks Today: 3 Best MLB Home Run Prop Bets and Predictions for Monday 4/20/26

Today's Top Home Run Picks at a Glance

• Jordan Walker (+680)
• Matt Olson (+410)
• Luke Raley (+630)

Across all of sports, few things are more exciting than the long ball.

That translates to the prop market, too, where each crack of the bat can get our heart pumping.

Using our MLB projections as a guide, which home run props stand out for today's MLB action?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best Home Run Props

Jordan Walker to Hit a Home Run (+680)

Cardinals at Marlins, 6:41 p.m. ET

Jordan Walker was been one of the breakout stars of 2026, racking up a .438 wOBA, 43.6% hard-hit rate and 47.3% fly-ball rate en route to eight dingers.

When you pop the hood, Walker's breakout looks super legit as he -- per Statcast -- ranks in at least the 95th percentile in all of expected wOBA, average exit velocity, bat speed and launch-angle sweet spot.

Yes, please.

Today, Walker will see Miami Marlins righty Max Meyer. A year ago, Meyer posted extreme reverse splits, with right-handed hitters generating a .389 wOBA and 2.12 homers per nine innings against him.

Looking like one of the game's elite power hitters and in a good spot, Walker is an appealing home run pick at these long odds.

Matt Olson to Hit a Home Run (+410)

Braves at Nationals, 6:46 p.m. ET

The Atlanta Braves are taking on righty Jake Irvin, and I'm intrigued by a few of their HR props. While I nearly wrote up Michael Harris II (+590), I ultimately landed on Matt Olson.

Irvin was tagged for 2.32 homers per nine and a 40.9% fly-ball rate by left-handed hitters in 2025.

Enter Olson.

The Braves' slugger has hit exactly 29 bombs in each of the past two seasons, and he's off to a superb start this campaign, popping five jacks with a 40.7% hard-hit rate and 47.5% fly-ball rate. Against righties last year, Olson amassed a .378 wOBA, 40.1% hard-hit rate and 42.4% fly-ball rate.

After Irvin departs, Olson will face a Washington Nationals bullpen that sits fourth-worst in xFIP so far this season.

Luke Raley to Hit a Home Run (+630)

Athletics at Mariners, 9:41 p.m. ET

J.T. Ginn has a tough time with lefty hitters, and although Luke Raley is a pinch-hit risk if he sees a southpaw later in the game, Raley's HR odds catch my eye.

Left-handed hitters hammered Ginn to the tune of a .440 wOBA and 2.37 tanks per nine a season ago. Ginn pitched to a 4.62 xFIP in the split -- way worse than his sterling 2.72 xFIP against righty bats.

Raley is raking in 2026. He's already launched five home runs and has a .433 wOBA to go with a 50.0% hard-hit rate. The only negative is -- like I mentioned -- the pinch-hit risk as he's totaled just two plate appearances against LHPs this season.

If the pinch-hit concerns scare you away, you can instead turn to Josh Naylor (+590) to go yard. Naylor is also left-handed but usually stays in the game for lefty-lefty matchups.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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Which home run props stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.