3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby

The 2025 Kentucky Derby happens Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs. Twenty of the best three-year-olds in the country, chosen based on points earned across six months of prep races, will line up to go a taxing 1 ¼ miles. At stake are a $5 million purse, an iconic blanket of Kentucky Derby roses, and a spot in horse racing history.

Because of the huge field, the quality of the race, and all the time there is to consider the horses and prepare, the Kentucky Derby is a betting experience like no other. In cases of class, pace, trip, and pedigree, the Kentucky Derby is a case of small margins all around.

It is one of the greatest puzzles there is, and finding that one advantage that eludes millions of other bettors can be the key to a life-changing payoff. And, that has been especially true these last few years. In the first six years of the Kentucky Derby points system, favorites won the Run for the Roses. However, price horses like Country House, Rich Strike, and Mystik Dan have had their day over the last six years. So, don’t be afraid to bet a long shot!

Get ready to bet on the Kentucky Derby winner with FanDuel Racing. Explore the exciting 2025 Derby promos available on FDR. Stay updated on the Kentucky Derby Odds and Contenders as we approach the Run for the Roses!

New FanDuel Racing users are included in the excitement with a chance to get your first win wager on a single horse in any race at any track up to $500 back if you lose. Bet the Derby!

Kentucky Derby Pace

One of the major effects of the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system had to do with the pace of the race. When bids to the Kentucky Derby were based on graded-stakes winnings, a lot of those decisive paydays came in juvenile races and sprints. The most promising juveniles don’t always want to stay 1 ¼ miles, and many end up being outright sprinters. They’d wing it on the lead, often getting in a battle with other speed types, and set it up for whoever could run on best late.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby points system puts higher weight on later preps. This emphasizes not only in-form horses, but also those with the tactical ability and the stamina to win at 1 ⅛ miles and even 1 3/16 miles. Even though that has lessened the likelihood of a whiz-bang pace battle, it still happens sometimes—like in 2022, when Summer is Tomorrow and Crown Pride set sprint-style fractions, setting up for 80-1 shot Rich Strike to pick up all the pieces.

The front end could be even more torrid in 2025. Four horses in the Kentucky Derby have yet to prove they can win a race without being on the front end: rail-drawn Citizen Bull, Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez, Blue Grass Stakes (G1) runner-up East Avenue, and outside-drawn Owen Almighty. Virginia Derby winner American Promise’s best running style has him up front haranguing the leaders, as well.

This means midpack horses and closers are going to get the best of it from a pace perspective.

Kentucky Derby Bet-Againsts

First and foremost, try to avoid contenders who haven’t proven they can win without getting the lead. Though Owen Almighty and even East Avenue are unlikely to take heavy betting action, Citizen Bull and Rodriguez might take play, especially since they represent six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert’s first trip back to Churchill Downs’ biggest race since 2021, when Medina Spirit was disqualified.

Citizen Bull has the name recognition as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Eclipse Award winner, though it’s Rodriguez who comes in with better form of the Baffert pair. Still, Citizen Bull comes into the Kentucky Derby off a poor effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Rodriguez may have won the Wood Memorial (G2), but he got things all his own way on the front end, something that won’t happen in the Kentucky Derby without a lot of scratches. Baffert may be back, but neither of his runners has shown the tactical abilities they need to be anything more than consumed in a hot early pace.

Who Will Win the 2025 Kentucky Derby?

We know about the pace in the Kentucky Derby, and know who might be trouble at the windows. But, enough about that—who are the Kentucky Derby 2025 best picks? These are the three horses to keep in strongest focus as you play the Run for the Roses.

Burnham Square

Naysayers may proclaim that Burnham Square got a perfect setup in his last start and only won it by a nose. And sure, Burnham Square did get a fast pace to chase in the Blue Grass. However, it’s also worth asking what the pace in the Kentucky Derby will be before dismissing that kind of a final prep.

The truth is, Burnham Square will likely get an even better setup in the Kentucky Derby than he got at Keeneland. He closed into a fast pace, but that pace was uncontested, and the horse he nailed at the wire was East Avenue, the horse who was setting that uncontested pace. In the Kentucky Derby, with so many horses who have yet to prove they can do anything but set the pace, odds are that Burnham Square will be chasing down leaders who have a lot less left late than East Avenue did.

And, if the track is playing poorly to deep closers? Burnham Square also has an advantage, since he doesn’t have to be a deep closer like he was in that final prep. He was at the rear early in the Holy Bull (G3), but a lot closer up early than he was in the Blue Grass, and also kept on after an early move. He even won his maiden race from a tracking spot early, suggesting another dimension of versatility.

Coming into a chaotic 20-horse race, a horse who can win from multiple race shapes is a horse who is more likely to handle that chaos. And, it’s also a positive that Burnham Square’s jockey can handle it, too. Brian Hernandez, Jr. won the Kentucky Derby last year by a nose thanks to a ride that was both smart and gutsy, and now Burnham Square gets to take advantage.

Journalism

Journalism will be the heavy favorite, and in the Kentucky Derby, it’s always worth it to ask tough questions of the favorite. Still, he has been impressive throughout the prep season and must be considered in a Kentucky Derby betting strategy.

Though he was defeated in his sprint debut, he is a perfect four-for-four in two-turn races. He broke his maiden at Del Mar, won the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at Los Alamitos, and took down both the San Felipe (G2) and Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita, meaning he doesn’t need just one track footing to thrive. He is tactical enough to stay out of a pace battle, a crucial skill given the likely pace setup.

The Santa Anita Derby, though he only won that by three-quarters of a length, was his most impressive and most telling effort leading into the Kentucky Derby. Despite only five horses in the field, Journalism got a poor trip, stymied behind more traffic than should ever happen in a pack so small. And yet? Journalism just won. He took advantage of room when he got it and was able to reel in the improving Baeza. The ability to adapt and stay interested when things go wrong is something not every horse has, and not every Kentucky Derby favorite has been able to prove before the big race.

He isn’t a slam dunk, which is why it’s worth looking for value with a horse like Burnham Square. Journalism hasn’t tried 1 ¼ miles yet…but no one has, and being by Curlin out of the classy Uncle Mo mare Mopotism, it would be no shock to see him handle it. And, for all of the questions he could plausibly answer up to this point? He has answered them in the affirmative, and has a good chance on Derby day.

Sovereignty

Conventional wisdom says Gulfstream Park is not a great place for closers to prep for the Kentucky Derby, because the track tends to be so speed-friendly. Decisions to prep their late-running horses at Gulfstream Park have sent so many trainers hunting for late preps elsewhere to get enough points for the big race.

But, Sovereignty? He rallied to win the Fountain of Youth by a neck, then rallied for a good second behind Tappan Street in the Florida Derby (G1), piling up enough points during that winter at Gulfstream to make the Kentucky Derby field easily. He’s a good closer, he reliably fires, he shows up against classy horses … and of course, with the likely pace scenario of the Kentucky Derby, Sovereignty should get plenty of pace to run at in the lane.

This won’t be Sovereignty’s first trip to Louisville. It always merits attention when Bill Mott sees fit to run a maiden in a graded-stakes race, something he did with Sovereignty last fall in the Street Sense (G3) after the horse missed by a neck in a maiden special weight mile at Aqueduct. The Street Sense was Sovereignty’s first try in a two-turn race, and he thrived. He sat in ninth and last most of the way, rolled home into the lane, and drew off to win by five lengths. In short, the footing at Churchill Downs won’t be a problem.

The mile and a quarter may well suit this colt, too. He is a son of Into Mischief, who can sire any kind, including two Kentucky Derby winners, Authentic and Mandaloun. Into Mischief also sired Goldencents, sire of Derby winner Mystik Dan. His dam, Crowned, is a daughter of Preakness Stakes winner Bernardini out of the Spinster (G1) winner Mushka. In short, there’s enough to think Sovereignty can get the trip.

Kentucky Derby Honorable Mention: Chunk of Gold

These are the three top choices, but it’s always good to have a fourth in mind, just in case … after all, the Kentucky Derby superfecta can pay a lot, especially when there’s a long shot or two in the superfecta.

And, speaking of long shots, let’s go big with Louisiana Derby runner-up Chunk of Gold, who is likely to be closing late at a huge price. That’s become his brand on the Kentucky Derby trail, after all.

Though he still seeks his first career stakes victory, the Ethan West trainee rallied for second in both the Risen Star (G2) and Louisiana Derby (G1), a pair of races with improving Kentucky Derby profiles in recent years. He has mustered up a late run in all four of his races, and even was able to show a little versatility in the Louisiana Derby, running from more of a midpack style than a deep-closing one.

There are other reasons to like him, too, beyond his running style. He is a son of Preservationist, a graded-stakes winner at 1 ¼ miles, out of a Cairo Prince mare who has some dirt stamina in her family. So, there is some pedigree potential. His under-the-radar connections should keep the price up as well – trainer Ethan West starts a horse in the Kentucky Derby for the first time. But rider Jareth Loveberry has been to this race before: he gave Two Phil’s a great ride to finish second to Mage in the 2023 edition, meaning he can stay cool and ride smart even on the biggest stage.

New to FanDuel Racing? Place your first bet up to $500 and get it back in Racing Bonus if it doesn’t win! Valid in participating states. See here for full terms and conditions. Head over to FanDuel Racing to see all of today’s horse racing odds.

Looking for more horse racing betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Racing to see all of today’s horse racing odds.

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit RG-help.com.
Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT). Hope is here. GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support (MA). Visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD). Call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY).
21+ and reside in AR, AZ, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, ID, IA, IL, IN, KY, LA (permitted parishes only), MD, MA, MI, MN, MT, NH, NM, NY, ND, OH, OR, PA, RI, SD, VA, WA, WV, or WY. Offer valid on first real-money wager of $0.10 or more. Verified FD Racing account required. Bonus issued in non-withdrawable Racing site credit that expires 7 days after issuance. Max refund $500. Restrictions apply. See terms at racing.fanduel.com. Offer not available in D.C., KS, NC, NJ, TN, or VT.