2025 Belmont Stakes Exacta and Trifecta Picks and Predictions

Key Takeaways:

• Baeza is the recommended key horse for exacta and trifecta bets due to his strong Kentucky Derby finish, improved post position, and elite pedigree.
• Sovereignty and Journalism are solid choices to use underneath Baeza: Sovereignty skipped the Preakness to rest, while Journalism enters off a Preakness win but faces a tighter schedule.
• Crudo is a live long shot with upside, especially if he avoids a speed duel with Rodriguez and can press the pace from his outside draw.
• Suggested bets include:
  • Exacta: Key #6 Baeza over #2 Sovereignty, #5 Crudo, #7 Journalism
  • Trifecta: Key box #6 Baeza with #2 Sovereignty, #5 Crudo, #7 Journalism

The Belmont Stakes happens at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 7! For the second year in a row, with Belmont Park undergoing renovations, the race will be run upstate at the slightly shorter distance of 1 ¼ miles, instead of its usual 1 ½-mile distance at Belmont Park. The race will return to its usual location and distance in 2026.

However, horse racing fans and bettors alike have a lot to look forward to in the 2025 edition in Saratoga Springs. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty returns to the starting gate, as do the two horses that followed him home at Churchill Downs: Journalism and Baeza. Of course, after the Kentucky Derby, Journalism went on to win the Preakness Stakes.

Other horses in the competitive eight-horse field include Peter Pan Stakes (G3) winner Hill Road, Wood Memorial (G2) winner Rodriguez, Sir Barton winner Crudo, UAE Derby (G2) runner-up Heart of Honor, and allowance winner Uncaged. With a mix of proven stakes performers and up-and-coming new faces, you cannot miss this horse racing event.

The best way to be a part of the Belmont Stakes action is to bet on the race. And, one of the best ways to go for a big score is to play exotic wagers like exactas and trifectas. Keep reading to find out how to construct smart bets on the race!

Get ready to bet on the Belmont Stakes winner with FanDuel Racing. Explore the exciting 2025 Belmont promos available on FDR. Stay updated on the Belmont Stakes odds as we approach The Test of the Champion!

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How to Bet Exactas and Trifectas

Before you commit to a Belmont Stakes betting strategy, it is a good idea to learn what exactas and trifectas are, what structures exist for betting them, and the costs and benefits of those strategies.

What Are Exactas and Trifectas?

The classic win bet is just that: the bet cashes if your horse wins. Exactas and trifectas are just an extension of that: instead of betting on just the first horse to cross the wire, you are betting on the first few horses across the wire.

To cash an exacta, you need to have the first two finishers in the correct order. In a trifecta, you are betting on the first three horses to finish, in order. These are harder to get correct than just picking a winner. However, especially in races like the Belmont Stakes with huge fields, getting them correct can lead to a huge payout.

Horse Racing Exacta and Trifecta Betting Strategies

These are the basic strategies for betting exactas and trifectas.

Straight Exacta or Trifecta: One Combination

You can bet the exacta or trifecta straight, just one sequence or two or three horses. However, this is uncommon, especially in races with fields as big as the Belmont Stakes. If you have a very strong opinion that one horse is likely to finish first and another horse is likely to finish second, a straight exacta can be the right move in a race. However, it is more common to bet multiple possible combinations, and the large payouts when a live long shot runs into the top two or three can make this a profitable strategy.

Boxed Exacta or Trifecta

The opposite of betting a single combination is by betting an exacta box or a trifecta box. In a box, you are taking a group of horses you think can finish in the top two or three and betting all possible combinations of groups of those horses finishing first or second for an exacta, or first, second, and third for a trifecta.

A box can make sense if you have a short list of horses you want to play, especially if most or all of them are long shots. But, the price escalates rapidly: for example, if you play a trifecta box, and you think there are seven horses with a chance at the top three, and you want to play every combination? There are seven possible horses who can win, then six possible horses behind each of those, then five possible horses who can be third behind those two. That’s seven times six times five—or, 210 combinations.

These are the common costs of exacta and trifecta boxes at the minimum bets offered by Saratoga Race Course:

Another issue with boxing exactas or trifectas is that they usually do not reflect your actual opinion on a race. A boxed bet suggests that you have a similar opinion on each horse’s chances to finish in the top two or three, since you put the same amount of money on each combination. However, if you have a horse or two who you think are more likely to finish high, or even finish in a particular spot, you are essentially wasting money by betting just as much on extremely unlikely combinations as you are on the ones that involve the horse or horses you think will run well.

Using a Key Horse in Exactas and Trifectas

You can cover multiple combinations while focusing on stronger opinions by using a key horse. A key horse is just like it sounds: they are the key to your bet, and you are leaning on them to finish in a certain position.

One way of using a key horse is by betting for a horse to finish in a particular position in your exacta or trifecta. This is most often done by keying a horse to win (“keying on top”), though you can also key a horse in second or third. For example, if a horse finishes second often, keying a horse in second in exactas and trifectas can be just the right move.

Then, you just play the other horses you think can finish in the exacta or trifecta in the other spots where you do not have your key horse. You have fewer winning combinations since the key horse has to finish in the spot where you placed them, but also, you are putting your money on your opinion about that one horse.

Finally, a good middle ground between a key and a box can be a wager sometimes called a “key box.” In an exacta key box, you are wagering on a situation that has your keyed horse finishing either first or second, with any of your other horses of interest in the other spot: it’s basically two separate key bets, one keying them in first and one keying them in second. The trifecta key box works similarly, except it’s like three key bets at once: one keying them in first, one keying them in second, and one keying the horse third.

This can be a useful wagering structure for the Belmont Stakes, due to the closely matched field and the challenging distance. Even the best horse on the day can finish second or third due to trip trouble, and in such a large field, the risk versus reward ratio often merits the cost of covering situations in which your key horse finishes anywhere in the exacta or trifecta.

2025 Belmont Stakes Field

You’ve learned the basics of how to put together exacta and trifecta tickets, so now it’s time to put it into action in the 2025 Belmont Stakes! The race drew an exciting field of 8, including the Kentucky Derby winner, the Preakness Stakes winner, the Peter Pan (G3) winner, and several new faces ready to win a Triple Crown race.

This is the official field for the 2025 Belmont Stakes, including post position draws, trainers, jockeys, and morning-line odds for each horse:

Keep in mind that the listed 2025 Belmont Stakes odds are the morning line. They are a good guide to which horses are expected to take money on Belmont Stakes day, but odds are not final until post time.

So, be ready to follow the odds all day on FanDuel and FanDuel TV, and adjust your determination of which horses offer the right value—and adjust your bets!—based on the actual betting action on race day. After all, horse racing is a game of information, so staying on top of the latest news and odds moves is one of the best ways to bet like a pro!

Belmont Stakes 2025 Contenders

These are the horses to consider for your exacta and trifecta wagers in the 2025 Belmont Stakes:

Exacta and Trifecta Key

Baeza is the logical key to exactas and trifectas. It’s true, he has some tables to turn from the Kentucky Derby: he was third behind Sovereignty and Journalism at Churchill Downs. However, there are several reasons he can take the needed step forward.

For one, he gets a better post position in the Belmont than he did in the Kentucky Derby. In Louisville, he had to draw in off the also-eligible list, meaning he broke from the far outside in a field of 19. That was a recipe for early ground loss. In the Belmont, he has a nice middle gate. He also had to deal with traffic around the turn in the Kentucky Derby—something he has a good chance of not having to deal with as much of in a field with 11 fewer horses.

He also has one more race worth of experience now. Going into the Kentucky Derby, both Sovereignty and Journalism came in with a wealth of stakes experience. Baeza only faced stakes foes for the first time in his final prep, the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He ran a close second despite that inexperience, being beaten less than a length by Journalism that day

Despite those difficulties in the Derby, and despite his inexperience, Baeza ran a great third in the Kentucky Derby. He finished powerfully, almost catching Journalism for second. And, in terms of pedigree, it was no surprise he handled the distance well—he is a McKinzie half-brother to both 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage and 2024 Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch. And, even though you can argue he was helped by getting the last run into a fiery pace—if the pace isn’t as hot in the Belmont, Baeza’s California form (and the better post!) suggests he can sit closer to the pace and still run well.

More Belmont Stakes 2025 Exacta and Trifecta Contenders

When playing the exacta, this appears to be the kind of race where the “logical” horses are the goods, and it makes sense to keep it narrow—go all in on Baeza as a straight key to turn the tables, with a few horses in second. In a trifecta, especially with the third favorite on top and a long shot in the mix, a key box strategy makes sense.

Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty bypassed the Preakness Stakes and went straight to the Belmont—a move that, given trainer Bill Mott’s cautious nature, does not suggest issues, but rather a deliberate training plan. The fact that Sovereignty has been training and even putting up published works at Saratoga in the meantime bears that out. Though the pace may not be quite as hot as the Kentucky Derby, he has been able to close into more modest paces to win, and a duel is not completely out of the question given the presence of both Rodriguez and Crudo.

Preakness Stakes winner Journalism has had a bit more demanding campaign—he’ll be the only horse to contest all three jewels of the Triple Crown in 2025, and he is coming off a heroic late run to catch Gosger in the Preakness Stakes. But, trainer Michael McCarthy is not known as one to race extremely often or take wild swings. He took a few days to regroup after the Kentucky Derby before announcing the Preakness was in the plans, and took almost two weeks after the Preakness to announce the Belmont Stakes was a go.

There’s also an argument for long-shot Crudo. He is the better of two from the Todd Pletcher barn, and Pletcher is always dangerous in the Belmont Stakes, even with less experienced runners. The concern is whether Crudo gets into a pace battle with Rodriguez, since Crudo has yet to win without the early lead, and Rodriguez has proven that he needs it. However, not only does Crudo have a chance to outgun Rodriguez, but with only three starts, Crudo has more upside to prove he has another dimension. His only loss came on debut in a sprint after a bad start. He has started well enough in later races to suggest that’s not a pattern, and drawn outside of Rodriguez, Crudo will be the right price to consider that he may be able to press, take over, and try his luck against the more experienced horses coming from behind him.

2025 Belmont Stakes Exotic Bets

Here are our recommended exacta and trifecta bets for the 2025 Belmont Stakes:

• Belmont Stakes exacta bet: Key #6 Baeza over #2 Sovereignty, #5 Crudo, #7 Journalism
• Belmont Stakes trifecta bet: Key box #6 Baeza over #2 Sovereignty, #5 Crudo, #7 Journalism

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