Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Will the Habs Take Another Series Lead?

Canadiens vs Maple Leafs, Moneyline, Total & Odds

Moneyline: Canadiens: (+138) | Maple Leafs: (-164)
Spread: Canadiens: +1.5 (-205) | Maple Leafs: -1.5 (+168)
Total: 5.5 – Over: (-102) | Under: (-120)
Odds to Win Series: Maple Leafs: (-235) | Canadians: (+188)
Odds to win Stanley Cup: Maple Leafs: (+800) | Canadians: (+3400)

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Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs News, Analysis & Picks

The Montreal Canadiens stole Game 1 against the Toronto Maple Leafs thanks to an impressive outing from Carey Price as the Leafs dismantled the Habs in Game 2. They head back to Montreal with the series tied at one game apiece and the Leafs priced as -164 favorites in Game 3, but should the Canadiens be favored with series shifting back to Montreal?

We're starting to see a trend emerge when the Habs and Leafs face off. Montreal tends to come out hot against the Leafs, posting an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% at five-on-five in six of their last seven encounters. A quick start would go a long way to helping the Habs secure victory for several reasons.

First and foremost, the Habs have a great advanced metrics track record against the Leafs on home ice. Montreal has posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% at five-on-five in four of their five meetings at the Centre Bell this season. The Habs have relied on defensive structure to limit the Leafs in those games, holding them to 24 or fewer scoring chances in all five and 16 or fewer in three of five. High-danger chances are scarce, with the Leafs attempting only seven opportunities in three of five.

The Leafs' road metrics have also been less than stellar to end the season. Toronto has been outplayed at five-on-five in three of their final six road games. They eclipsed double-digit high-danger attempts in just one of those games, putting up an average of 8.0 opportunities per game. The Leafs' road metrics across all strengths are even worse, as Toronto has posted an expected goals-for percentage below 50.0% in three of their last four. Toronto has had subpar efforts on the road to end the season.

The last metric that we're going to consider is the Leafs' PDO on the road. Toronto has the sixth-best PDO as the visitors this season but has failed to record a PDO above 1.000 in any of their last three games. Despite this fallout, the Leafs remain well above average, with a mark of 1.012. On the other end of the ice, the Habs have a .976 PDO on home ice, ranking 28th in the league, despite having the 13th-ranked expected goals-for percentage.

Montreal is due for substantial progress on home ice while the Leafs have put up sub-optimal metrics on the road to end the season.

The Habs have come out on fire against the Leafs time and time again. They should be able to use that to build a cushion to protect the lead in Game 3 and ride their momentum to victory.

The Bets: 
- Canadiens +138
- Canadiens First Period Moneyline +225

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