2 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Vikings at Cowboys on Sunday Night Football

Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.

You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for the Sunday night matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Vikings at Cowboys Betting Picks on Sunday Night Football

Vikings Team Total Under 20.5 (-108)

I'm not that far off this team total for the Vikings as my model has it at 20.3. There are enough paths to an under to make this interesting to me.

The first one could be underperformance, which would make sense. J.J. McCarthy ranks 43rd out of 44 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. The overall performance has been rough, even if last week was a bright spot.

The second would be a conservative gameplan that drags down scoring for the entire game. The Vikings' early-down, first-half pass rate in games McCarthy has started is 49.0%, below the league average of 53.6%. Runs not only are less likely to generate big plays but also help drain the clock.

That's a wise approach for the Vikings. As 6.5-point underdogs, you want to up the variance by limiting the number of total drives. That means leaning on the ground game, milking clock, and hoping the defense can get some stops. When you combine this path with the underperformance route, the under on the Vikings' team total stands out.

First Quarter Winner: Vikings (+140)

I liked the idea of of the 3-way first quarter market, skewing toward the tie at +340. But the hold in that market is higher than 10% while the hold here is 5.1%, making it easier to scrape up some value.

The reason I was searching in these markets in the first place stems from a decision Kevin O'Connell made in Week 14. After winning the toss, he elected to receive, something coaches don't do all that often. The team took the opening drive for a touchdown to put themselves in a positive game script.

This makes sense. If you've got a quarterback you're trying to develop, you don't want him in situations where the team is trailing. Get him on the field early to develop some confidence and -- you hope -- build a lead. I could see them taking the same approach here.

As noted above, I'm expecting the Vikings to slow things down in order to cut the sample size in the game. If they can do that on the opening drive, it'll limit the Cowboys' chances in the opening stanza. Dallas will have chances to close that gap across the final three quarters, but that doesn't matter for this market.

Basically, we're banking on O'Connell's decision to take the ball last week giving us an edge overall in the market, and if he does that, it should make things tough on the Cowboys in the first quarter. That's enough for me to fire even if I'm not all that high on the Vikings' offense overall.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.