The Duel

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Value Could Fall With Fewer Rushes in 2019 NFL Season

Jason Schandl
Carolina Panthers v Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers v Detroit Lions /

Cam Newton is the poster boy for dual-threat quarterbacks, but the 2019 NFL season could bring us a very different Superman than we're used to seeing.

The Panthers' franchise quarterback only played a full 16 games twice over the last five years and he underwent shoulder surgery this offseason after injuries severely limited his play down the stretch in 2018. In an attempt to keep the 2015 NFL MVP healthy, Newton is expected to run less this coming season.

Once the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy football, a drop in his rushing volume could hurt his value in 2019, especially since at least 25 percent of Newton's fantasy production has come from his rushing output in each of his last three seasons.

If we just look at production that has come through the air, Newton would have finished ranked 16th among QBs in fantasy football in 2018, 17th in 2017 and 21st in 2016. That's a massive drop off for a guy who finished 2017 with the second-most fantasy points at the QB position before dropping to 17th in his injury-riddled 2018 season.

We haven't seen Newton top 4,000 passing yards since his rookie season in 2011, while there were 12 quarterbacks that crossed that threshold in 2018. That lack of air yardage hasn't simply been a volume concern that we can expect to improve with fewer rush attempts either. Over the past three years Newton has averaged only 6.5 adjusted yards per pass attempt (which factors in touchdowns and interceptions), a number that would have stacked up 28th in the NFL (between Joe Flacco and Alex Smith) last season.

With an average draft position (ADP) of QB10, signs are pointing to this being a potentially disappointing season if you draft Newton in fantasy football. Even if he returns to action fully healthy following that shoulder surgery, a reduced rushing workload is not what you want to see from him as your QB1.

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Jason Schandl is not a FanDuel employee. In addition to providing DFS gameplay advice, Jason Schandl also participates in DFS contests on FanDuel using his personal account, username Jaymun. While the strategies and player selections recommended in his articles are his personal views, he may deploy different strategies and player selections when entering contests with his personal account. The views expressed in his articles are the author's alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel.