MLB Betting Guide for Thursday 9/21/23: Road Favorites With Young Aces

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians

Orioles -1.5 (-110)

We have a short evening slate tonight with just seven games to choose from.

Despite limited options, the Baltimore Orioles stand out as an intriguing, 1.5-run road favorite against the Cleveland Guardians.

Baltimore comes into tonight having won four of their last five games, two of which came by at least two runs. They're in a strong spot to add to that total with Grayson Rodriguez on the bump.

G-Rod has been rock-solid since returning to the majors. The 23-year-old righty has pitched to a 2.59 ERA and 3.93 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) since the All-Star break, maintaining a 23.5% strikeout rate in the process. Most impressively, Rodriguez has held opponents to a .214 batting average over that span and sports a 1.06 WHIP. Though he's flashed nasty strikeout stuff, his 53.4% groundball rate over the second half ranks eighth among qualified starters.

Coming off an eight-inning shutout against the Tampa Bay Rays, he's well-positioned to continue his breakout against the Guardians.

Cleveland may only strike out at an 18.8% clip against righties but they've struggled to do much damage at the dish. In that split, the Guardians rank 21st in wOBA (.308) and dead last in ISO (.131). That has culminated in a below-average -35.2 Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA) against right-handed pitchers.

So, assuming Rodriguez can continue his torrid stretch, we just need Baltimore's lineup to hold up their end of the bargain. While the Guardians haven't officially named a starter at the time of publication, Hunter Gaddis is expected to return to the majors for his seventh start of the year.

Gaddis has bounced between Triple-A and the big league club this season -- though he's struggled with consistency at both levels. Between his 6.14 MiLB ERA and 4.85 ERA, Gaddis isn't someone we should be afraid of. That's especially true given Gaddis' 5.79 SIERA and measly 13.5% strikeout rate in his six MLB starts.

Baltimore, meanwhile, hasn't had any issues with righties, especially over the second half. Since the All-Star break, the Orioles rank 13th in wOBA (.321) and 10th in wRC+ (105).

It's hard to go wrong backing one of the best teams in baseball when they're up against such an inexperienced arm. Thus, I'm all over the Orioles to cover as road favorites.

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics

Tigers -1.5 (-110)

The only other game that sticks out tonight is at the Coliseum. The Oakland Athletics have been historically bad this season. The Detroit Tigers haven't been world-beaters by any means, but their advantage on the mound makes them a strong runline play as 1.5-run favorites.

That advantage comes via the arm of Tarik Skubal. The southpaw missed the first three months of the year but has since been downright dominant. Through 13 starts, Skubal sports an incredible 2.99 SIERA to go along with his 30.7% strikeout rate. He's cut his walk rate down to 4.7% in his third MLB season and has done a great job limiting hard contact, allowing just 27.6% of balls in play to be classified as such. Most encouraging of late, however, is his ability to pitch deeper into games. He failed to complete 6.0 innings in his first six outings but has since gone at least 6.0 innings in five of his last six starts.

Skubal's matchup tonight is fantastic. The A's have been one of the worst lineups in baseball against left-handed pitchers. In that split, Oakland sports the third-lowest wOBA (.296), the fifth-lowest ISO (.145), and the seventh-highest strikeout rate (24.1%). The A's have struggled in general to put up runs this month, averaging a measly 3.72 per game and scoring three-plus just twice in their last seven games.

On the opposite side, Detroit faces off with righty Luis Medina. The 24-year-old has flashed in spots but has otherwise struggled to prevent runs. For the season, Medina sports a 5.56 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP -- backed up by a 4.81 SIERA and 4.96 FIP. He's really struggled with lefties (against whom he's allowing a .354 wOBA), and Detroit is expected to start four left-handed hitters tonight.

The Tigers aren't great against righties, but they've been better since August 1st. Over that span, Detroit has a .306 wOBA and .153 ISO.

That said, this play is all about the pitching matchup. Given both teams' splits, Under 7.5 (-110) is also an intriguing wager. However, for our sake, I'm more comfortable putting stock in Tarik Skubal's breakout and trusting Detroit to do enough against Luis Medina to win by two-plus runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.