Best Bets Today: Upset Predictions for Today’s March Madness College Basketball Games

College Basketball Top Upset Predictions

March Madness is where upsets define the tournament — and Saturday’s slate is loaded with opportunities to find value on underdogs.

If you're searching for the best bets today, March Madness upset predictions, and college basketball picks, this slate features several games where the spread doesn’t fully reflect how competitive the matchup could be.

Let’s break down the top upset picks and best bets for today’s NCAA Tournament games.

Top Upset Picks for March Madness Today

1. Louisville (+172) vs. Michigan State

• Spread: Michigan State -4.5
• Moneyline: Louisville +172
• Total: 150.5

This is one of the strongest upset spots on the board.

Why Louisville can win:

• Balanced scoring across multiple starters
• Ability to match Michigan State’s physicality
• Michigan State’s offense can struggle to create separation

With a spread under two possessions, this game profiles much closer to a coin flip than the odds suggest.

Best Bet: Louisville Moneyline (+172)

2. Texas (+205) vs. Gonzaga

• Spread: Gonzaga -6.5
• Moneyline: Texas +205
• Total: 147.5

Texas already proved its upside earlier in the tournament and now faces a Gonzaga team that can be vulnerable defensively.

Why Texas is live:

• Strong guard play and shot creation
• Ability to score in runs
• Competitive game script favors late-game execution

Texas has the profile of a team that can not only cover — but win outright.

Best Bet: Texas Moneyline (+205)

3. Saint Louis (+590) vs. Michigan

• Spread: Michigan -12.5
• Moneyline: Saint Louis +590
• Total: 161.5

This is a higher-risk, high-reward upset — but one worth considering.

Why Saint Louis is live:

• Elite scoring ability and fast pace
• High total increases variance
• Underdog will remain aggressive offensively

In high-total games, large underdogs have a better chance of staying within range — or pulling off a surprise.

Best Bet: Saint Louis Moneyline (+590) — Longshot Value

Strong Underdog Value (Not Full Upsets)

These teams may not be the most likely to win outright, but offer strong value against the spread.

TCU +11.5 (-110) vs. Duke

• Duke has the edge, but:
  • TCU plays a physical style
  • Double-digit spreads are tough to cover in tournament settings

Best Bet: TCU +11.5

Texas A&M +10.5 (-106) vs. Houston

• Houston’s defense is elite, but:
  • Texas A&M can generate offense in spurts
  • Large spread + slower pace = underdog value

Best Bet: Texas A&M +10.5

High Point +11.5 (-105) vs. Arkansas

• Already pulled off an upset earlier in the tournament
• Plays with confidence and offensive aggression

Best Bet: High Point +11.5

Games to Avoid for Upsets

Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska (-1.5)

• Essentially a coin flip
• Little value on either moneyline

Betting Strategy for March Madness Upsets

When targeting upset picks:

• Focus on guard play and shot creation
• Target high totals (more possessions = more variance)
• Look for spreads under 6 points for true upset potential
• Sprinkle moneylines, don’t overexpose

Final Thoughts

Saturday’s slate offers a strong mix of:

• Legitimate upset opportunities (Louisville, Texas)
• High-risk value plays (Saint Louis)
• Strong spread underdogs (TCU, Texas A&M)

The key to March Madness betting is identifying where the gap between perception and reality creates value.

Best Bets Recap

Top Upsets:

• Louisville ML (+172)
• Texas ML (+205)
• Saint Louis ML (+590)

Best Underdog Value:

• TCU +11.5
• Texas A&M +10.5
• High Point +11.5

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.