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NFL Picks This Week

Updated February 12, 2024  
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Takeaways from Super Bowl LVIII: NFL Bettor's Outlook for 2024-25

The Kansas City Chiefs are the NFL's new dynasty. Kansas City has now conquered the best of the NFC East and NFC West in 3 combined Super Bowl victories since 2019-20, and QB Patrick Mahomes is a legend in his own time after leading KC to yet another comeback championship. The Chiefs' heroic performances even rescued Super Bowl LVIII itself from becoming a dud of an NFL season's finale, rejecting the San Francisco 49ers' attempt to dominate time-of-possession and build on a 10-3 halftime lead. By the time the teams had traded blows in the latter half to tie at 19 points each and go into a hair-raising overtime, spectators knew they were seeing another classic Super Bowl, starring Mr. Mahomes.

Fans of great QB play will celebrate Mahomes as the winner of another Super Bowl MVP award, and talk up Andy Reid as the game's new West Coast Offense guru drawing up plays for the sport's modern-day "Joe Montana," helping Mahomes conquer Montana's first franchise while playing for the final club Montana tossed TD passes for. Though as wise FanDuel gamers who tracked Super Bowl LVIII for 75:00 of game clock can tell you, defenses still win championships—or at the least they do in Kansas City's case.

Kansas City's defense was mighty on Sunday, forcing San Francisco into a critical Red Zone miss in OT after holding the great tailback Christian McCaffery to just 80 rushing yards on 22 carries, and allowing a hobbled Deebo Samuel just 41 yards on 6 total touches. The San Francisco 49ers went 3-for-12 on 3rd-down conversion efforts, and lost 2 fatal fumbles. The NFC's best defense still belongs to the 49ers, who kept Travis Kelce from becoming a force in Sunday's title tilt for more than 2 quarters, and pressured Mahomes into intentional grounding penalties that ruined early drives for KC. In the final result, though, our nod definitely goes to the Chiefs as a defensive unit inked in the "franchise best" column.

San Francisco's leading (+500) futures picks to win next year's Super Bowl are ripe for criticism. Mahomes could have ironically lost Sunday's game MVP trophy to Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker, given how KC's struggles in plus-territory mirrored those of the NFC champions. But by the 4th quarter, it was evident that for all the hype over San Francisco's QB Brock Purdy, the Bay Area upstart was outmatched by a future HOF'er. A sportsbook line of nearly 7-to-1 odds on KC repeating again in 2024-25 makes sense, considering how hard it is for NFL teams to win 3 championships in a row of any kind. However, we're not sure San Fran deserves those 5-to-1 favorite's picks on a title.

If there's one way in which San Francisco's bright futures odds make sense, it's that HC Kyle Shanahan of the 49ers has clearly improved his wares in Super Bowl competition, in spite of the raw, painful statistic of San Fran blowing 2 more leads to Kansas City in Sunday's defeat. Shanahan didn't go silly with fancy, wide-open formations and try outmatching Mahomes through the air, especially with Purdy unable to give San Francisco's star TE George Kittle nearly as many chances as Kelce in the end. Contradicting a season's worth of hype, KC's lineup simply proved superior.

Shanahan may have made a terrible mistake in allowing San Francisco's team captains to choose to receive the ball first after winning the OT coin toss. Just as in a 25-yard college football OT scenario, overtime possessions on the long field still benefit the team that already knows how many points are needed to tie or win. "Futures" gamblers aren't predominantly thinking about the last coach's call, though, but an entire upcoming offseason's worth of draft picks, free agent picks, and "picks" on at least 17 games.

The NFL's referees will get higher marks for a Super Bowl in which penalty flags were sparse. At the same time, it's become obvious to anyone watching that The Shield's new overtime rules are a mess, and that confusion reigns even worse now that the league has tinkered with the formula that led to "knock-out" touchdowns and cautious field goals early in OT periods. You cannot knock out an opponent via a first-possession TD anymore, and yet the words "sudden death" seem to be so overly discouraged that announcers and referees have no idea how to explain what happens if teams are tied after one possession each. Even members of the Chiefs and 49ers reported being confused as to whether the Super Bowl would continue after Mahomes and running back Isiah Pacheco drove Kansas City inexorably toward the winning touchdown, or whether the contest would have gone to sudden-death rules following a tying field-goal kick from Butker on the last KC drive. That's inexcusable, since coaches go out of their way to explain OT rules to the players in each officials' timeout, and often during low-contact Friday practice before a kickoff.

Everyone's trying their best to get the complicated OT rules, yet the NFL is doing itself no favors trying to explain them. The Super Bowl referees' announcement, "We are beginning a new game," made no sense whatsoever, since a new game doesn't end as soon as either team's offense fails to match the other one's, or when either defense scores on a safety or a pick-6 interception. A "new game" overtime would be more like a soccer match's "extra time" in which goals are tallied until the end of a fixed period, and the team with a lead at that point is victorious. Kansas City's winning TD pass wasn't followed by an extra-point, or the NFC champs trying to come back in the "2nd quarter." It was an overtime, not another "game," even though the NFL has somehow managed to make it so that Thomas Edison would struggle to understand the rules of its overtimes, at any time of year. By 2024's preseason, the league desperately needs to clarify its OT rules to the fans and athletes. Needless to say, it would help if they pick a set of rules and stick to them.

NFL Analytics, Betting Lines, and Predictions

Many prediction blogs offer household sports bettors a “lock” on game X or a “sure thing” on kickoff Y. Even if there was such a thing as a sure-fire bet on an unpredictable 4 quarters of NFL pigskin, the idea that a gridiron handicapping page should be full of confident lock-down picks and little else is entirely missing the point of the NFL picks. 

However, no blog’s recommended “expert” picks are a substitute for gamblers thinking on their feet. There’s no such thing as a live-betting recommendation blog, since live wagers on the NFL change in a matter of seconds, faster than any of Twitter’s best game feeds. There’s also no such thing as an accurate prediction posted on Tuesday before a Sunday kickoff since a dozen injury reports will come out in the 4 days in between. Therefore, a good prediction sheet doesn’t claim to know all the picks to make. Our goal for FanDuel’s weekly NFL picks will be to point gamblers in the right direction and get them thinking about factors that go into the shifting markets.

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The wiseguys boast of “betting against the public” during the football postseason when NFL betting odds on the final teams left standing can change quickly But an even better tactic when making NFL picks is to bet against the media. 

Mainstream sports reporting can affect the public’s perception on favorites and underdogs, causing the odds and NFL point spreads to shift as a majority of gamblers buy into the hype. That’s when good old sound football logic can be used to beat the numbers and pull in a profit at the sportsbook when betting on your favorite team. 

Hopefully, you don’t get too bored with our “sound football logic” here on this NFL blog. In order to keep all readers interested in making picks each week, we’ll be rotating handicaps from all over the FanDuel Sportsbook pigskin betting board from preseason until December—so that gamblers of all flights of fancy can find the best market.

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QB, RB, and Defense in a New Decade

Despite polarized opinion surrounding each man as an individual, a pair of QBs named Tim Tebow and Colin Kaepernick wound up having a dramatic effect on how NFL football is currently played. Both players’ social messages have reached demographics far beyond the gridiron’s typical sphere. Yet, each QB’s short-lived career (Kaepernick may still achieve NFL success in the future, while Tebow is mired in baseball’s minor leagues) is notable for tactical points that changed the way the position is handled at the top level. 

When Tebow piloted a “Gator-bait” Read Option attack to an AFC Divisional Playoff appearance for the Denver Broncos in 2011-12, pundits scoffed at the accomplishment—and the playbook—as a fluke. When Kaepernick led the San Francisco 49ers to an NFC title with a Nevada-style “Pistol” attack during a game the following season, ex-coaches said that Kaepernick had to “learn” how to play from the pocket and win with a pass-first game plan, just like champion NFL QBs of the past. It’s a passing league, they said, so any playbook that relies on a running QB is doomed to fail and fall apart with injuries behind center. 

Russell Wilson, another dual-threat QB leading the Seattle Seahawks, whipped Peyton Manning’s Broncos for an NFL championship in 2014. 

The old guard of NFL quarterbacks was far from finished. Run-oriented systems were not replacing the strategies of all 32 teams, but simply presenting head coaches with a fresh alternative. Tom Brady and the New England Patriots spent the latter half of the decade racking up more conference and league titles with Brady’s statue-like pocket presence and a litany of forgettable RBs. 

But multi-talented QBs who were beginning their college careers as Kaepernick starred in the NFL were getting ready to take over professional football. Pat Mahomes of Kansas City won the regular-season MVP award in 2018 and a championship the following season. QB Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens revolutionized NFL offense in 2019-20, riding a “Sun Belt” playbook to a 12-game winning streak and an MVP award for Jackson, who finished the year ranked 6th in rushing yards.

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Expert NFL Handicapping Tips for the 2020s

Gamblers must handle the new NFL landscape cautiously. Game plans that include 55% or 60% running plays can still rack up a ton of points, as the Ravens and 49ers took turns demonstrating in 2019. But even a successful 4 quarters from a ball-control offense can lead to a low-scoring win, a loss on “Over” wagers, and (most likely) no point-spread cover by a strong favorite like Baltimore or San Francisco.

If someone’s going to make knowledgeable NFL picks each week, it will be crucial to track how defenses handle QBs like Jackson in the years to come. As Kaepernick shined in early starts, linemen often held their gaps on his pass attempts, fearing a 1st-down run if a rush lane became vacated by the aggressive move. Play-callers countered by allowing “Kaep” to pass more often, using the extra time to find open WRs. Kaepernick struggled once the 49ers switched to a precise passing game, but the new breed of do-it-all NFL QBs have proven that they can open up and throw successfully. 

Watch for quotes from “old-school” NFL linebackers preparing to take on Jackson and the Ravens. Emotional players who feel insulted by an “option”-style QB are often in no state of mind to hold a deceptive offense off the board. For example, Baltimore destroyed Seattle’s famously-chirpy defense in 2019 as Jackson’s team prevailed 30-16 at CenturyLink Field. But the Bengals and the Steelers had quietly gone to work in the weeks beforehand, limiting the Ravens in a pair of close games despite the latter club snapping out of its early-autumn slump. 

Running backs are becoming more valuable as a pick with the times. RB Raheem “Mosterati” Mostert led San Francisco to its NFC championship charge in 2019, while Derrick Henry of the Tennessee Titans nearly pulled off a similar feat before running into Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. RB Christian McCaffery rivaled, and on many weekends, surpassed legendary QBs in NFL Fantasy and DFS points. Don’t overlook “Over” bets on average passers when they’re handing-off to rushers who can light up the scoreboard with home-run carries. 

Finally, look for defense to become more important in the 2020s—for the same reason offense will be more important. Special teams plays are being phased-out! GMs floated and rescinded a plan to change on-side kick scenarios to 4th-down conversion attempts in 2020-21, but touchbacks and kickoff rules have been changed to an offense-friendly mode. Roger Goodell would be glad to see every NFL kickoff result in a touchback by 2025. 

Fans who spent the last few seasons complaining about run-heavy NFL playbooks may have the Lamar Jacksons of the world to thank if teams continue going for it on 4th down more often. When teams can get 2 yards on the ground consistently, they’re less likely to kick or punt from the opposing 40-yard line. The only saving grace for the NFL kicking game is the magnificent accuracy of kickers in the modern era, which should only continue to improve. 

Exact-score NFL prop gamblers shouldn’t go “7s wild” just yet. But if analytics helps teams score points more efficiently in the 2020s, the popular “Over” bet on Sunday might carry a winning record in more seasons than not.

How to Read NFL Betting Odds at FanDuel

Super Bowl Odds Available Year-Round

“Futures” on the next Super Bowl's potential champions are offered from an NFL season’s training camp through preseason, and even from one week to the next week during the regular season and playoffs. Bettors can wager on a favorite to win the NFL title at 5-to-1—or they can roll the dice with an underdog to win at closer to 50-to-1. Either way, speculators can spend a season cheering for their bet just as season ticket-holders do.

For the NFL futures market, FanDuel's bets are expressed in “moneyline” form, or for instance, 9-to-1 = (+900). Moneylines rival over/under betting as football’s simplest bet, so it doesn’t take a novel-length tutorial to explain them.

Moneyline Markets: Winning Big on Moneyline NFL Bets

In the classic comedy film "It’s a Mad Mad Mad Mad World," a gang of accidental detectives tries to dig up a fortune hidden under a “big W.” In the comic drama known as the NFL, not every win, or “W,” is worth a lot of money.

Sometimes, like in the movie, weekend bets on NFL games instead amount to a car wreck, thanks to cross-motives as the campaign goes on. For instance, the owners of a last-place team, looking to clinch a top NFL draft pick for the following April, might even secretly hope that the club posts another Sunday “L.” But for those gambling on a moneyline, to win and make real money when betting a team-to-win straight up is always a big deal.

Moneyline odds promise a percentage payoff when a gambler’s chosen team wins the game. An NFL favorite’s odds are posted with a “-” symbol as in the moneyline (-200). Underdogs are marked with a “+,” as in an ML of (+350). The money payoff is calculated differently in the favorite and underdog markets, but always with $100 bills in mind.

The favorite's odds of (-200) mean that for every $200 bet on the team to win that week, the house will pay out $100 on the expected outcome.

On the underdog side, the odds represent the amount paid out on one $100 bet if the team wins. For example, (+350) equals a $350 payout on a $100 bet, and a win with (+1000) represents a money payout of $1000 on the same NFL betting risk, and so on.

Sports Betting on NFL Point Spreads: Spotting, Taking, and the Push

Point-spread sports gambling works by “spotting” points to the underdog and “taking” points away from the favorite prior to kickoff. For instance, if the Kansas City Chiefs are a (-10) point spread favorite for the Super Bowl, the team must win by at least 11 points to “cover the spread” and win a bet. If the visitors win, tie, or lose to the Chiefs by only 9 points or less, then the “(+10)” underdogs cover the spread.

Spread betting can be a refuge for those whose hometown team is a heavy favorite or long-shot underdog on a given Sunday. A 2-touchdown favorite won’t pay off very much with a moneyline betting victory, but a (-14) favorite that covers the spread pays off at close to a 1-to-1 bet at FanDuel Sportsbook. Meanwhile, if you’ve taken the underdogs to “cover” a 14-point spread, you’re really just hoping for a close contest. Your NFL predictions can lose the game by 13 points and still cover.

When the spread is matched exactly by the outcome of an NFL game, such as the New York Giants (-8) beating the Dallas Cowboys (+8) by exactly 8 points, wagers are returned in a “push” result.

Tricky Totals: Over/Under Betting

The over/under wager collapses a pair of NFL opponents into a single market and asks how many overall points will be scored in the game.

Each “O/U,” or over/under bet, has 2 components. The over/under line is a number with no math symbols, no bells, and whistles. Just (45) or (51.5) (with the “.5” fraction blocking a potential push, since NFL teams can’t score half-points) or maybe (55) if a pair of high-scoring teams are planning a Monday night track meet. Next to the O/U number are the payoff odds—again usually around 1-to-1 risk and reward.

Recreational gambling affects the O/U. Whether it’s the NFC Championship, AFC Championship, or another high-profile game, the “over” market will tend to book too much sports action, as people who bet for fun prefer to cheer for lots of TDs by both teams, even if their team doesn’t win. Online NFL betting bookmakers will then move the O/U line upward to balance out the sports betting action on each side of the market. Therefore, the “under” can be a sure-fire winner when 2 opposing defenses are better than advertised.

Whole-number O/U lines such as (42) are “pushed” when final scores tally the O/U exactly. If teams are tied 21-21 going into OT, a scoreless period results in a push on the O/U of (42) points, while a score of any kind by either club results in a win for a bet on the “over.”

Prop Betting, Parlays, and Live Gambling Action

More than just old-fashioned odds are available at FanDuel’s online sportsbook. For a chance at making some money, sports betting speculators can wager between NFL prop bets and parlays in addition to live-betting sports markets each Thursday, Sunday, and Monday of the season.

“Prop,” or “proposition,” odds come with multiple-choice or yes-no gambling questions posed by the bookmaker. Benchmarks are often used, such as “will Tom Brady pass for 300+ yards on Sunday?” Other props can be as simple as asking whether an athlete will start for his team and/or score points in a big game. Other prop bets might cover an entire season.

A parlay is a bet on multiple teams to win or multiple teams to cover the spread, and all outcomes must be winners for the gamble to successfully win money. Because hitting an NFL parlay bet is among the more difficult gambling tasks, FanDuel Sportsbook offers eye-popping payout percentages and even the occasional “teaser” or gambler’s choice line-movement on NFL spreads in a parlay.

Live or “in-play” NFL odds are offered to gamblers as sports games are being played. Point spreads, over/under lines, and moneyline odds are continually updated in real-time as events on the field affect the likely results of drives, quarters, halves, and the final score. In-play gaming on NFL action comes with its disadvantages, such as not always being able to “grab” a bet slip prior to the rapid-fire odds changing once again. But there are advantages too, such as being able to find nice payoff odds on a surging underdog just as the gambling public might bet a favorite to come back in the 2nd half.

Every style of sports betting comes with its own tactical fine points. Click around FanDuel’s betting blog and “go deep” on some top strategies of winning NFL predictions.

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