Today's Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Week 8

It's "National Tight Ends Day" everyone. I'm sure that'll be the first of 100-plus times you'll hear that. In non-tight-end-related matters, Week 8 in the NFL only has four spreads smaller than a touchdown, meaning we could see some massive upsets a week after the public absolutely crushed it with favorites. Where can we find betting value around the landmines?

Additionally, don't forget to check out FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections to see what we project from each player across key statistical categories.

Which value remains on the board in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's check it out.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

Today's Best NFL Betting Picks

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

Over 44.5 Points (-110)
Chase Brown Over 73.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-114)

I get it. A New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals over seems wholly impossible four weeks ago. Now, I think these teams can bully the other team's respective poor defense in Queen City.

Officially, both of these clubs bring a bottom-11 schedule-adjusted defense to the table, per numberFire's metrics. The Jets' ranking might honestly be a bit friendly given key injuries to their defensive secondary.

The real upgrade here is at quarterback in recent weeks. You don't need me to tell you Joe Flacco balled out in Week 7, ranking seventh among starters in expected points added per drop back (EPA/db), according to NFL's Next Gen Stats. I'm not sure Justin Fields is a disastrous outcome here as the starter for New York, either. The Bengals haven't faced more than six rushing attempts from a quarterback (Bo Nix) all season. This will be a very different look when it seems the Jets have known about Fields all week.

This spread (6.5) is surprisingly low, and it can't possibly be a backup-laden Jets secondary stopping Ja'Marr Chase. Perhaps Fields has another explosive outing in him.

After finding room to roam against the Pittsburgh Steelers, I think I want to go to Chase Brown in the prop market, too.

Brown's 2025 can only be categorized as disappointing, but a relevant sample with Flacco and Joe Burrow has been much better. He's posted 66.3 scrimmage yards per game in those efforts compared to 46.3 in three full efforts from Jake Browning.

Frankly, the Bengals were happy to go back to Brown when he found just the slightest bit of success. His snap rate (62.5%) was back up to a dominant share as Cincy had a lead, and that could be the case again, per this game's spread.

New York below average (17th) against the rush on an efficiency basis, but they've allowed the third-most expected rushing yards in the league (665.7). Brown's 11.3% target share is worth including the receiving aspect, too.

FanDuel Research's NFL player prop projections expect 88.4 median scrimmage yards from Cincinnati's running back on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans

Texans -2.5 (-110)
Dalton Schultz Over 48.5 Receiving Yards (-112)

Here's your public trap of the week.

The San Francisco 49ers are 5-2. Christian McCaffrey looked unstoppable last week. What's a little home field advantage to cede to a Houston Texans squad that was positively unwatchable just six days ago?

Oh, yeah. They're facing numberFire's best schedule-adjusted D at home -- a defense that ranks second in EPA per play allowed (-0.13). Houston even bottled up the run a bit better to allow just 3.6 yards per carry (YPC) on Monday. All of those spell trouble for a Niners team that has, frankly, run hot in the Mac Jones era.

All seven of San Francisco's games have been decided by 11 points or fewer. Every single one has come down to the wire. Crucially for a porous Houston offensive line, the Niners' adjusted pressure rate (20.4%) is 30th in the NFL. They have no pass rush with Nick Bosa lost for the season.

The Niners are badly due a loss. Houston is in do-or-die territory for a Wild Card berth with the Indianapolis Colts out at 6-1. Urgency could regress these teams closer to what they deserve.

A favorable positional matchup on "National Tight Ends Day" could help, too.

Dalton Schultz has a chance to ball out on his position's holiday. Schultz is coming off a Week 7 effort where Nico Collins(head)'s absence led to a season high in targets (10), catches (9), and yards (98). He earned a 21.7% target share from C.J. Stroud.

Quietly, the Niners are a phenomenal positional matchup. Now without Fred Warner, S.F. has allowed the sixth-most targets (56) and fourth-highest rate of targets per route (22.7%) to opposing tight ends. Since Warner went down, opponent tight ends that lead the team in routes are averaging 6.0 catches and 56.5 yards per game against the 49ers.

Schultz is averaging 47.3 receiving yards per game before this massive boost in workload. In a friendly matchup, I'll go to the well again.

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Titans Over 15.5 Points (-138)

This is not a high bar for the Tennessee Titans when there are several paths to cashing it -- including the Colts potentially not caring if they do after the outcome is decided.

Indianapolis' defense is just incredibly overvalued by the team's 6-1 record. They're nF's 19th-ranked schedule-adjusted unit, and by playing at the league's 17th-fastest adjusted pace, the Colts do a pretty average job of protecting it.

Outside of the sinking Las Vegas Raiders, every team in the their way has put up 20-plus points this season. That includes these same Titans in a 41-20 loss. A repeat would cash, mirroring this exact line of thinking.

Cameron Ward posted a season-high 0.74 EPA/db on downfield passes (10-plus yards) last week. He got to be a bit more like the guy who went No. 1 overall with Brian Callahan out of the way. New England terrorized the rookie with sacks, but a softer Colts defense allowing an 11.1 aDOT (ninth-highest in the NFL) gives up more big plays.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.