NFL MVP Betting: Justin Herbert Remains a Capable Dark Horse

Who exactly is Justin Herbert? Well, with +900 odds to take home the 2023 NFL MVP award -- per the NFL MVP odds at FanDuel Sportsbook -- he’s the fourth-most likely player to be the MVP.

The Los Angeles Chargers' quarterback spent much of his pre-draft process in the shadows of looming giants Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa before bursting onto the scene in 2020 by breaking the record for touchdown passes by a rookie (31), toppling Baker Mayfield’s previous record of 27.

Herbert’s second season was even more impressive. Newly-hired head coach Brandon Staley and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi seemed to unlock Herbert’s potential, paving the way for him to throw 38 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, and 5,014 passing yards. That made him just the 14th player to ever eclipse 5,000 passing yards in a season in NFL history.

However, the hype train seemed to derail a bit in 2022. The offense stagnated with injuries to their talented receivers, and Herbert himself fractured his rib cartilage on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. The cannon-armed gunslinger who unleashed barrages of passing production a season ago averaged just 6.7 intended air yards per pass attempt -- the third-lowest depth in the league. Only Matt Ryan and Daniel Jones had lower marks.

It’s unclear just how much of the blame lies at Lombardi’s feet considering all of the injuries the Chargers’ key offensive players dealt with, but the team parted ways with him in the offseason after their meltdown in the the 2022-23 playoffs. The team was quick to snap up former Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Kellen Moore after he and his former team mutually agreed to part ways, which could be a boon for the Chargers’ offense in 2023.

With Moore calling plays in Dallas, Dak Prescott and the Cowboys created some of the most prolific and high-scoring offenses in the league over the past few seasons. Those potent offenses could be a portent of things to come in Los Angeles. There are good reasons to believe the Chargers’ offense will be charged up in 2023.

A Healthy Arsenal

It’s hard to understate how banged up the Chargers were during most of the 2022 season.

Top wideout Keenan Allen made it a third of the way through their Week 1 game before suffering a hamstring injury that essentially sidelined him until Week 11. Mike Williams missed four full games during the season, was limited in two more, and suffered broken a bone in his back during the season finale that caused him to miss their playoff game.

Coupled with Herbert’s own fractured rib cartilage and the early loss of right tackle Rashawn Slater exacerbated the need for the Chargers to get the ball out of Herbert’s hands as soon as possible. Without capable wide receivers to operate beyond the line of scrimmage, the Chargers’ playbook collapsed.

Running back Austin Ekeler rose to the challenge, leading the team with 127 targets, 107 receptions, 722 yards, and 5 scores, but a functional passing offense can’t rely solely on its running back for production through the air. Former third-round pick Josh Palmer drew 107 targets and converted them into 72 receptions for 769 yards and 3 touchdowns as one of their de facto top wideouts, but he was largely ineffective in that role. He broke just a single tackle on the year and mustered a mediocre 89.7 passer rating when targeted, which ranked 121st among pass-catchers in the league.

The team needed more capable bodies and it needed a genuine layup pass-catcher – two problems they’ll attempt to solve with the addition of 2023 first-round pick Quentin Johnston. The TCU alum was one of the best receivers in the nation at generating yards after the catch during his collegiate career. His 8.9 yards after the catch ranked third in the nation among draft-eligible receivers in 2022, and he was a capable field stretcher as well.

Just on paper, the addition of Johnston should address multiple issues the Chargers faced in the previous season. With healthy wideouts and a more versatile passing scheme under Kellen Moore, we should see Herbert’s 6.7 average intended air yards mark from 2022 spike back up to at least his 7.5-yard average from his first two seasons.

A Bounce-Back Year

Just based on the tone of what we’ve covered so far, you might think we have been talking about one of the worst offenses in the league from the 2022 season. But, despite all of the obstacles their offense faced last year, Herbert still ranked second in the league in total passing yards with 4,739 and threw 25 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions. The team still finished about average in total points by the end of the season (391).

If we think last season was the floor for a Justin Herbert-led offense, then the ceiling could genuinely produce an MVP-caliber season for the fourth-year signal caller.

In Dak Prescott’s healthy seasons, the Cowboys produced some of the best offenses in the league. Excluding the 2020 season, during which Prescott was on pace to break offensive records before his brutal ankle injury, the Cowboys’ offenses ranked 1st, 4th, and 11th respectively in total yards generated between 2019-2022. They also ranked sixth, first, and fourth in total points scored.

The pairing of Herbert and Moore could lead to a barrage of scoring this season. The young quarterback has already broken 5,000 passing yards in a season and was knocking on the door of cracking 40 passing touchdowns as recently as 2021. While his touchdown rate dropped to just 3.6% in 2022, he previously had a strong 5.45% rate in his first two seasons. If he bounces back to his earlier touchdown rates, we could see him break 40 passing touchdowns this year. If we’re really lucky, it’s not inconceivable to think Herbert could reach 50 passing touchdowns.

Can the Chargers Help Herbert Out?

Herbert can’t really control what the Chargers’ defense can do to support him. The team has gone 26-24 in their three seasons since drafting Herbert. Even with his offensive output, they have sat at a -20 point differential across his three years.

Their defense has trended in the right direction over the last two years, but they’ll need to tighten up even further to help Herbert contend for an MVP bid. They finished second in their own division with a 10-7 record last season, the franchise’s best performance since 2018.

Since 2010, only Adrian Peterson’s 10-6 Minnesota Vikings produced an MVP-winner with fewer than 11 team wins. When we factor in the NFL’s recent change to a 17-game regular season, any MVP candidate’s team will probably need to win at least 11 games for them to have a realistic chance of winning the award.

The NFL win total odds market has the over/under set to 9.5 for the Chargers in 2023, meaning they’ll need to outperform expectations to reach that 11-win threshold for Herbert’s MVP candidacy.

Herbert will also has the misfortune of playing in the same division as Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. As a perennial MVP contender, Mahomes is a hurdle Herbert will have to clear if he is going to have any shot at an MVP title. Dating back to 2000, only Peterson’s Vikings and Peyton Manning’s 2008 Indianapolis Colts were able to produce MVPs without winning their own division. The Chiefs have had a stranglehold on the AFC West since Mahomes’ first season in 2018 and haven’t finished worse than second place in the division since Andy Reid took over in 2013.

Essentially, if Herbert wants to win the award, he’ll need to prove to the AP’s voters that he is more valuable to his team than Mahomes while they play in the same division. The Chargers will likely need to best the Chiefs in their head-to-head matchups -- and in the divisional standings -- to set Herbert up for a successful run at the title

Herbert’s +900 odds place him behind Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow in the race for the MVP. That makes sense given that he’ll have arguably the most to overcome out of any of that group to put together a successful campaign. But, we could see a brand new Chargers offense in 2023, and the thought of a fully-unleashed Herbert should put terror in the hearts of opposing defenses.

Herbert is likely to fill up stat sheets and box scores throughout the 2023 NFL season and could do it prolifically enough to take home the MVP award by the season’s end.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.