Kentucky Derby Baeza Odds, History and Predictions

The 151st Kentucky Derby is nearly here, and the field of three-year-old horses is set.

Baeza was a late addition to the field as an alternate but has run hot on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

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Stay updated on the Kentucky Derby odds and contenders as we approach the Run for the Roses!

Baeza Derby Odds and Post Position

Baeza's Kentucky Derby morning line odds are 12-1 (+1200).

Baeza Trainer and Jockey

2005 Kentucky Derby-winning trainer John A. Shirreffs should have Baeza locked and loaded ahead of the 2025 Derby. Shireffs is responsible for three Triple Crown top-threes -- all of which occurred before 2010.

Baeza has one of the top jockeys in the field in Flavien Prat. Prat won the Eclipse Award Outstanding Jockey in 2024, during which he ranked 1st among all jockeys in earnings. He's placed 1st, 2nd, and 3rd (three times) at Churchill Downs.

Baeza Race History

Baeza only has 1 win across 4 starts but has placed top-two in three consecutive races. They've posted compelling speed scores over their last two races, enough to rank 3rd in the field for average speed score in the last three races. That includes a 2nd-place finish at the Santa Anita Derby in early April.

Speed Scores via Equibase.

Baeza Kentucky Derby Prediction and Pick

Despite being an alternative fill-in, Baeza is tied for the fourth-shortest odds to win the Derby entering the weekend. With arguably the top jockey in racing and encouraging recent speed scores, Baeza is certainly a contender at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. At 12-1 odds, there's a lot to like with what could be an underrated horse at Churchill Downs.

Check out the FanDuel TV Grande Kentucky Derby contender profile below.

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