Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 7

Week 6 offered plenty of slate-breaking performances, but it was a true feast-or-famine sort of week. Those monster games didn't just come from our usual suspects, either. That served as another reminder of how important start/sit decisions are on a weekly basis.

Looking ahead to Week 7, FanDuel Research's fantasy football projections serve as a solid baseline for deciding who to slot into your starting lineup. But when we pair those projections with some recent historical data, even further lines can be drawn. From there, factors like game environment, strength of opponent, and the latest news can help shape our start/sit decisions.

Here is the Week 7 fantasy football start/sit.

All betting references refer to the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All statistics via NFL Next Gen Stats unless otherwise stated.

Fantasy Football Start/Sit: Week 7

Quarterback

Start

Caleb Williams (CHI)
Caleb Williams continues to produce like a QB1 in fantasy, having cracked 18 fantasy points in four of five games this season. He's been a top-10 weekly finisher in three of those five games, averaging 235.8 passing yards while seeing the second highest percentage of his team's red zone rush attempts (40%) among quarterbacks. That gives him multiple ways to produce in fantasy and sets up well for a home date with the Saints. New Orleans has let up the fourth-most fantasy points per dropback to this point, and they're bottom-10 in pressure rate. Our Week 7 fantasy football projections peg Caleb for 18.8 fantasy points -- eighth at the position. Wind could be a factor here, though additional play volume by way of partaking in Week 7's second-fastest game by adjusted pace should offset any weather-related downgrades.

Justin Fields (NYJ)
Last week was rough for Justin Fields -- there's no getting around that. He had as many completions as sacks taken (9) and finished with a measly 4.9 fantasy points in a truly abysmal effort. But that was overseas against a Broncos defense ranked second in adjusted defensive efficiency, per numberFire's metrics. Fields had cleared 25 fantasy points in each of his previous three full games, so I don't think we should fade him despite the ugly effort. This week, the dual-threat QB returns home to take on a Panthers team ranked inside the bottom 10 in overall defense and 27th in adjusted pass defense. Carolina is a top-10 quarterback matchup by adjusted fantasy points allowed, pushing Fields right back into QB1 territory.

Sit

Matthew Stafford (LAR)
Matthew Stafford wasn't asked to do much in LA's 14-point win last week. He recorded a season-low 27 pass attempts, resulting in just 181 passing yards and 9.3 fantasy points (also season-lows). That came on the heels of consecutive 300-yard, 25-fantasy point outings, but an injury to top target Puka Nacua doesn't offer much optimism for a bounce back in Week 7. It doesn't help that the Rams are headed across the pond to take on Jacksonville's top-10 pass defense in London. Fantasy-wise, the Jags haven't been a matchup to avoid for quarterbacks, but I question Stafford's upside without Puka considering he's now failed to hit 15 fantasy points in three of six games this season. Without a rushing floor, there are just too many question marks to start Stafford in Week 7.

Bo Nix (DEN)
Bo Nix has failed to hit 14 fantasy points in three of six games this season, and he's finished as a top-12 quarterback just twice. The underlying efficiency metrics aren't great -- Nix is right at league-average in EPA per dropback and in the bottom half in Passing Success Rate -- while the box score numbers don't offer much to get excited about -- he's 21st in passing yards per game. A home date with the Giants looks like a decent spot on paper, but New York has been much better against the pass (14th) compared to the run (28th). As 7.0-point favorites in a game where the total is down at 40.5 (as of Wednesday morning), I'm skeptical this game environment offers much fantasy upside for Bo Nix.

Running Back

Start

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WSH)
Despite Jacory Croskey-Merritt coming off a breakout game in Week 5, Bill fell flat in what looked like a stellar matchup against Chicago last week. He scored his second-fewest fantasy points of the season (5.3), but the underlying utilization was actually the strongest he's seen to this point. Corskey-Merritt saw his highest snap rate (67%) of the year while also recording a season-high 17 rush attempts. That sets him up well for a mouth-watering matchup with a Cowboys team which has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per adjusted opportunity (carries plus 2x targets) and ranks 27th in adjusted run defense. It helps that Commanders-Cowboys is the premier game environment for Week 7, featuring the week's highest total (54.5) and a tight spread (Commanders -1.5) indoors.

Kimani Vidal (LAC)
Kimani Vidal was one of the best waiver wire adds entering Week 7, and he did enough in LA's first full game without Omarion Hampton to warrant starting him this week against the Colts. Vidal recorded 21.3 fantasy points in a road win over Miami, notching 26 adjusted opportunities and 138 scrimmage yards. He easily led the Chargers' backfield in overall snap rate (69%) and was their clear top back inside the 20 (86% red zone rush share; 82% red zone snap rate). Indy is down to 14th in adjusted defense while LA has a rock-solid 25-point implied total. After an efficient showing in Week 6, I'd expect Vidal's volume to hold so long as Hampton remains out. If his efficiency is anywhere near last week's, that makes him a near must-start option in Week 7.

Sit

David Montgomery (DET)
In deeper leagues, I can understand the desire (or need) to start David Montgomery. He's seeing double-digit rush attempts and a near-50% red zone snap rate on one of the league's best offenses, after all. But in shallower formats, he's a true testament to your personal risk tolerance. Monty has shown plenty of upside with a pair of top-10 weekly finishes, but he's also failed to crack double-digit fantasy points in three of six games this season. With Jahmyr Gibbs in front of him, Montgomery has hit a 40% snap rate just once and hasn't exceeded 2 targets in a single game since Week 1. This week's Monday Night Football showdown with the Bucs should feature plenty of scoring, but Tampa has been a top-10 run defense and has faced the 10th-highest raw pass rate in the league. As such, David Montgomery is a true "break glass in case of emergency" fantasy football option in Week 7.

Tony Pollard (TEN)
We may be witnessing a changing of the guard in the Titans running back room. In Tyjae Spears' second game of the season, Tony Pollard posted his lowest snap rate (42%) and fewest rush attempts (10) of the season. Perhaps most concerning for Pollard's fantasy stock was his 27% route participation -- compared to 50% for Spears. Pollard was already an uninspiring fantasy option given Tennessee's lackluster offense, but he shouldn't be anywhere near your starting lineup with Spears already taking on a larger workload.

Wide Receiver

Start

Rashee Rice (KC)
This should go without saying, but just in case fantasy managers are unsure: you're starting Rashee Rice this week. Though we haven't seen the third-year receiver suit up since Week 4 of last season, he's now more than a year removed from last year's knee injury and should step right back into a primary role in this Kansas City offense. Now, we can't expect Rice to soak up a 34.5% target share like he did over the first three weeks of 2024, especially with Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown in the mix. But the Chiefs have been a much more explosive offense this season, and we shouldn't totally disregard the connection Rice had with Mahomes pre-injury. In his final 13 games with Mahomes, Rice averaged 7.2 receptions, 82.2 yards, and 14.6 fantasy points per game. He saw a 28% target share and was targeted on 29% of his routes during that stretch, offering upside in Week 7 even if KC chooses to ease him into 2025.

Tez Johnson (TB)
With Chris Godwin out, Emeka Egbuka likely out, and Mike Evans up in the air for Tampa's Monday Night Football clash with Detroit, rookie Tez Johnson is shaping up to be a top target in one of the league's best passing games. Johnson's route participation has ticked up over the past few weeks, jumping up to 50% in Week 5 and 80% in Week 6. He's seen a 12.7% target share the past two games but went for 59 and 45 yards, scoring his first career touchdown in Week 6. But most intriguing for Johnson's Week 7 prospects is his 14.1-yard average depth of target -- a mark that could translate to another viable fantasy showing ahead of a soft matchup with the Lions. Detroit is just 17th in adjusted pass defense, and they've given up the third-most fantasy points per target to opposing wide receivers. With Tampa headed north to play indoors as 5.5-point underdogs in a game featuring a 52.5-point total, this is the kind of game environment to start Bucs pass catchers.

Sit

D.J. Moore (CHI)
D.J. Moore was already shaping up to be a difficult start this week, even before he picked up an injury in Week 6. Moore has finished better than WR40 just once this season, and he's been held to single-digit fantasy points in four of five games. He's down to third on the Bears in target share (16.3%) and fifth in target per route rate (17%). And while he has gotten some downfield work, Moore's yards per route run are settled at a mere 1.41 through five games. That alone would be a difficult profile to start in a windy Week 7, but he's also dealing with a groin injury which has him described as "day-to-day." New Orleans is a soft matchup, but Moore remains a difficult receiver to trust given his lackluster utilization. He's an easy sit in Week 7.

Rashid Shaheed (NO)
For the life of me, I can't understand why Rashid Shaheed continues to be started in so many fantasy leagues. The Saints' No. 2 receiver has cracked double-digit fantasy points just twice through six games, and he's notched exactly four receptions in five consecutive games. There's obvious upside for someone with his speed and air yards share (26.8%), but he's been targeted on fewer than 20% of his routes this season and is attached to a quarterback who's in the bottom 10 in average depth of target. The Bears have given up plenty of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers overall, but they've quietly been above-average in yards per route run allowed to the position over the past three games. With heavy winds expected in Chicago, Shaheed doesn't carry as much upside as usual -- and we know the floor is low.

Tight End

Start

Harold Fannin (CLE)
Harold Fannin Jr. had his best game of the season in Week 6, notching 11.6 fantasy points on the back of 7 receptions and 81 yards. The rookie took full advantage of David Njoku's injury, running a route on a season-high 74.1% of Cleveland's dropbacks. Assuming Njoku misses this week, Fannin is shaping up to be a top-10 fantasy tight end in Week 7 with the Browns set to host the Dolphins. Miami has been one of the best tight end matchups in football through six weeks, permitting the third-highest target rate and most yards per route run to the position. With a 23% target per route rate through Dillon Gabriel's first two starts -- the highest among healthy Browns pass catchers -- Fannin is a strong start in a plus matchup.

Mason Taylor (NYJ)

Mason Taylor was a huge bust last week, but I'm not sure how much of that we can put on him after the Jets passing game managed only 45 yards through the air. Even so, Taylor played 95% of the offensive snaps and posted a 75% route rate. Now, with top target Garrett Wilson expected to miss the next few weeks with a hyperextended knee, there are an additional 9.3 targets per game up for grabs in this New York passing attack. Taylor's 17.7% target share ranks second on the team, positioning him to soak up the bulk of those looks in a plus matchup with Carolina -- a defense which has surrendered the second-most yards per route run to opposing tight ends. After TE14 and TE10 outings in Weeks 4 and 5, Mason Taylor is back on the TE1 radar for Week 7.

Sit

Travis Kelce (KC)
Travis Kelce has turned back the clock the past two weeks, posting 15.6 and 10.8 fantasy points while leading the team in target share (22.1%) and target per route rate (27.8%). But with Rashee Rice back this week -- and Kansas City expected to give him a big workload -- I'm skeptical we continue to see this throwback version of Kelce. In Rice's three healthy games last season, Kelce was a distant second in target share (14.3%) and fourth among KC pass catchers in target per route rate (14.6%). Now, with Xavier Worthy fully integrated into the offense and Hollywood Brown healthy, it's hard to see a path for consistent fantasy production from Travis Kelce. There will still be spike weeks given how well Mahomes is playing right now, but we can't consider Travis Kelce anything more than a touchdown-or-bust fantasy option in Week 7.

Darren Waller (MIA)
Darren Waller has exceeded even our wildest expectations through three active games in 2025. He's totaled 16.3, 16.2, and 8.3 fantasy points while scoring four touchdowns to this point, clearing paying off for fantasy managers. And yet, I can't help but feel like he can't keep getting away with it. See, Waller's 4 touchdowns have come on just 12 total targets. He's been held under 30 yards in two of three games and ranks just fourth on the team in target rate (13.5%). And if we just look at the past two weeks -- the two games Waller's played at least 50% of Miami's snaps -- his target per route rate is just 14.5%. It's clear Waller is still a threat around the end zone, but he's not going to score every week. And based on the target distribution, that means he's not going to be fantasy-viable every week. With the 'Fins showing a sub-20-point implied total on the road against Cleveland's top-10 defense, Waller's an easy fade.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.