Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 7's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• The New Orleans Saints remain fast on a weekly basis and are running a lot of plays as a result.
• The Falcons, Eagles, and Seahawks saw noticeable upticks in PROE in Week 6 from their season averages.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

Full Season

Last Week

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Notes After Week 5

Pace

• The New Orleans Saints remain the only team with an adjusted pace under 30.0 seconds in every game this year.
• The Los Angeles Rams were the biggest pace climbers in Week 6 compared to their full-season rate, running the third-fastest single-game offense of a year after adjusting for game context.
• With plenty of offensive injuries and some weather issues, the Washington Commanders ran their slowest pace of the season in Week 6 on Monday Night Football.
• The Dallas Cowboys also slowed down a bit in Week 6 for their slowest game since Week 1, though they were still quicker than average in the Week 6 loss.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

• The Atlanta Falcons had their first positive PROE of the year (+1.5%) in Week 6's win; that represented the largest single-week uptick for a team from their baseline leading in.
• The Philadelphia Eagles' +4.6% PROE in Week 6 followed a +18.1% PROE game in Week 5, signaling a sizable shift in offensive philosophy.
• The Seattle Seahawks (-1.4% in Week 6) still doesn't have a positive PROE game this season but actually had the third-largest PROE increase for all teams this week.
  • The four teams without a positive PROE game this year are the Seahawks, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, and New Orleans Saints.

NFL Week 7 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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