5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 9/14/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins

Over 9.0 Runs (-108)

We don't get this sort of bullpen ineptitude often. I cashed the over on Friday personally, Saturday in print, and am looking to make it three-for-three here.

Over the last 30 days, these are the two worst bullpens by skill-interactive ERA SIERA in baseball. The Detroit Tigers (4.51 SIERA) are bringing up the rear, but the Miami Marlins (4.29 SIERA) aren't far behind with the less-accomplished body of work for the season.

It's not like these starters are great, either. Detroit has sent Keider Montero (4.58 SIERA) down at points to correct his contact issues as he's permitted 1.61 HR/9 overall this season. Miami's Adam Mazur has a massive 5.26 SIERA because of low strikeout upside (13.1 K%) and an abnormal amount of walks (8.1 BB%) for that profile.

I barely know anyone in Miami's lineup, and that's what scares bettors here. They've tallied two runs in 14 games at MLB's seventh-best park for offense, though.

Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+320)

Mazur isn't an elite homer target with a long sample, but it's concerning enough to take the plunge with a scorching Riley Greene.

Greene has a .791 OPS, .274 ISO, 49.1% flyball rate, and 43.4% hard-hit rate across his last 84 plate appearances (PAs) against opposite-handed hurlers. That's resulted in five bombs -- two clear of the next-best teammate from his slumping squad.

As for the right-hander, Mazur has coughed up 3.27 HR/9 to opposite-handed sticks himself. It has been just 11.0 innings, but this dates back to 1.76 HR/9 overall allowed in Triple-A this year. If I was a betting man (and I am), I'd venture to guess that Mazur won't find the 50th percentile or better in limiting home runs. His barrel rate allowed (10.4%) wouldn't even reach the 10th percentile in MLB if it qualified.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.31 median homers from Greene on Sunday. I'd have expected to see him closer to +275 for a bomb.

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers Over 4.5 Runs (-128)

The wheels have fallen off the bus for the St. Louis Cardinals, and every Miles Mikolas start is a grave reminder about that.

With not much urgency to replace the righty in a lost season, Mikolas' ERA in his seven starts since August 1st (4.86) has improved, but his SIERA (5.72) most certainly hasn't. The veteran's 7.2% swinging-strike rate just presents next-to-no whiff upside, and his patented groundballs (39.9% rate) of prior campaigns haven't been nearly as voluminous as required.

Of course, the Milwaukee Brewers are basically the best team in baseball, too. That won't help. Milwaukee's .779 OPS against righties in the past 30 days is just sixth-best in MLB, but it'll do in this matchup.

As if a crooked number wasn't plausible enough, St. Louis ditched bullpen parts at the deadline, and their remaining options have MLB's 28th-ranked reliever SIERA (4.20) over the last month, too.

While I don't trust Milwaukee lefty Jose Quintana (5.01 SIERA), one of baseball's biggest regression candidates, to take a side, the Brew Crew should score.

William Contreras to Record 2+ Total Bases (-105)

Little brothers everywhere dream of the bragging rights that William Contreras might secure until these teams play again...next weekend.

Contreras' team might bust out the brooms on his brother (Willson Contreras)'s Cardinals, and he could be a major reason why. Despite being downright poor in same-handed matchups at points this season, William has turned it around to log 8 extra-base hits in his last 93 PAs against them. His .512 SLG, .214 ISO, and 33.8% hard-hit rate aren't shabby, either.

I love this matchup for him because Mikolas' 85.1% contact rate is especially helpful when the catcher's tendency to walk (11.5% vs. RHP in 2025) can hurt this prop. Most baseballs are in play against the vet.

We've got Contreras projected for 1.77 median total bases in this series finale.

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners

Mariners -1.5 (-104)

The Seattle Mariners are going to be a brutal out in October with their pitching staff, and George Kirby's resurgence is a huge reason why.

Kirby's 4.56 ERA is a fib. He's posted a 3.77 SIERA that stems from his usual elite control (6.1% BB) and ability to limit homers (0.99 HR/9 allowed). The right-hander is looking to make it three-for-three in quality starts this year against an Los Angeles Angels team that has a bottom-two OPS (.618) and strikeout rate (30.2%) against his handedness over the last 30 days.

Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh and the gang have to be licking their chops to get after L.A.'s Kyle Hendricks (4.94 SIERA) on the other side of the dish. Hendricks' five earned runs allowed in 12.0 innings against Seattle this season aren't horrible, but the greater concern might be an Angels 'pen with the fifth-worst reliever SIERA over the past month (4.15) once he departs.

Seattle is looking to bust out the brooms, but they've only covered the run line in one of these three games. To me, that sounds like they're due for an outburst.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.