5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 9/13/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays

Blue Jays Over 4.5 Runs (-113)

It could be yet another explosive day at the dish for the Toronto Blue Jays.

In a lost season, the Baltimore Orioles will once again trot out Tomoyuki Sugano, who has surrendered at least three earned runs in each of his last three starts. Sugano's 4.74 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and 5.79 xERA are high, and his 15.4% strikeout rate is quite low.

Baltimore's bullpen also has the sixth-highest reliever SIERA (4.12) over the past 30 days, as well.

This is all delightful news for a Jays squad with a top-10 OPS (.772) against right-handed pitching in this same period.

I'm unsure of what the home side gets from Max Scherzer (4.34 SIERA) or its own bottom-10 bullpen, but this is a good spot to back their offense at MLB's 13th-best park for hitters.

Daulton Varsho to Hit a Home Run (+320)

I was intentionally mum on Sugano's contact stats as to bring them up and make the case Daulton Varsho is our guy in the dinger market today, as well.

Sugano has surrendered a whopping 2.14 HR/9 to left-handed bats with a 7th percentile barrel rate (11.4%) and 47th percentile rate of groundballs (41.3%). There have been too many mistakes up in the zone for the right-hander from Japan this season.

Meanwhile, Varsho has crushed right-handed pitching of late, posting a .938 OPS, .379 ISO, 59.6% flyball rate, and 35.4% hard-hit rate over the last 30 days -- or 73 plate appearances (PAs).

Projected to hit sixth, FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.37 median home runs out of the outfielder on Saturday. We'd have set his odds closer to +223 for a bomb.

Detroit Tigers at Miami Marlins

Over 8.5 Runs (-115)

One of these offenses -- guess which -- is a little suspect to consider an over. Those "suspects" also tallied eight runs in a Tarik Skubal start on Friday, though.

That's because Skubal exited early and opened the door for a Detroit Tigers bullpen that has MLB's worst reliever SIERA over the past 30 days (4.42). The runner-up in that category? You guessed it: the Miami Marlins (4.32).

It's not like the starters are great, either. Detroit's Charlie Morton is reeling, entering having given up 14 earned runs in his last three starts. Miami's Janson Junk (4.20 SIERA) hasn't done a whole lot right outside of get extremely lucky in the homer column (6.1% homer-to-flyball ratio).

I was surprised to see loanDepot park ranked as MLB's 11th-best venue for offense. These staffs could be in trouble all weekend, and Saturday is no exception.

Riley Greene to Record 2+ Total Bases (-135)

This is a short line on a prop that could be undone with a pair of walks. That's how confident oddsmakers -- and our projections -- are that Riley Greene is able to tag the Marlins' arms at some point.

Greene is scorching from a power perspective in this opposite-handed split of late. He's slugged .548 with a .315 ISO and 42.3% (!) hard-hit rate over his last 84 plate appearances (PAs).

Junk's home run voodoo is bizarre, but it's not like his 8.7% barrel rate is good. In fact, it's 43rd percentile among qualifiers. Plus, lefties have slugged .478 off him anyway despite not finding many bombs (0.99 HR/9).

The outfielder's pedestrian walk rate (9.5%) in the aforementioned sample also alleviates concerns he'll walk us to an L. Our projections expect 2.32 median total bases for Greene in this one, implying closer to -207 odds if correct.

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants

Giants Moneyline (-104)

One of the best pitcher and park pairings in baseball betting is Logan Webb at AT&T Park.

Webb has a 2.77 home ERA, which is actually somehow larger than his xFIP (2.66). The San Francisco Giants have won 8 of his 14 home starts this season, and two of the Ls came in extras well after he did his part.

He represents a substantial edge over Clayton Kershaw (4.45 SIERA). In the bullpens, things are nearly identical over the past month between the Los Angeles Dodgers (3.68 SIERA) and Giants (3.63), as well.

Offensively, San Francisco has a .756 OPS against lefties in the past month. The Dodgers' .721 OPS against righties isn't quite as strong. Behind Webb, I think the Giants can make it five out of six wins on this home stand.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.